Protecting American Interests in a Convergent Global Threat Environment

Defense Posture and Global ThreatsHouse Armed Services · February 12, 2025 · 119th Congress
The House Armed Services Committee held its first hearing of the 119th Congress to examine what Chairman Mike Rogers called the most challenging threat environment since World War II, driven by deepening cooperation among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Begins at ▶ 0:24:37
Transcript
Highlights

Title

Global threats from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea's convergence

Purpose

The House Armed Services Committee held its first hearing of the 119th Congress to examine what Chairman Mike Rogers called the most challenging threat environment since World War II, driven by deepening cooperation among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Witnesses General Jack Keane (Institute for the Study of War) and Dr. Mara Karlin (Johns Hopkins SAIS) testified on defense spending levels, acquisition reform, the defense industrial base, and deterrence strategy toward China, Russia, and Iran. Members also debated DOGE's role at the Pentagon, foreign aid/USAID cuts, and Ukraine and Taiwan support. Begins at▶ 0:24:37

Who spoke

• Chairman Mike Rogers (R-AL)▶ 0:24:37: Opened by describing a converging axis of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea supporting Putin's war▶ 0:25:38, and called for raising defense spending to at least 4% of GDP▶ 0:28:10.

• Ranking Member Adam Smith (D-WA)▶ 0:29:11: Agreed adversaries share a goal of reducing US influence▶ 0:29:41, criticized slow Pentagon acquisition comparing it to "1950s Ford" versus "2022 Apple"▶ 0:30:42, and warned against denigrating allies like NATO and South Korea▶ 0:32:43, later criticizing talk of taking Greenland, Panama, and Gaza as undermining US sovereignty messaging▶ 0:33:43.

• General Jack Keane, ISW Chairman▶ 0:35:14: Said China is outpacing the US militarily except in submarines▶ 0:37:15, defense spending as a share of the federal budget is at 13.3%▶ 0:39:16, and recommended moving toward 5% of GDP▶ 0:39:46; later detailed acquisition reform needs including ending "requirements creep"▶ 0:48:52 and continuing resolutions▶ 0:50:53, and said Iran is at its weakest point in 44 years, urging a "date certain" ultimatum on its nuclear program▶ 1:00:58.

• Dr. Mara Karlin, Johns Hopkins SAIS▶ 0:40:16: Described an "age of comprehensive conflict" where the continuum of war has collapsed▶ 0:41:17, said the defense budget is at a historic high in dollars but historic low as % of GDP▶ 0:43:49, and recommended prioritizing China while not ignoring other threats▶ 0:43:18; later cited AUKUS's $3 billion Australian investment in the US submarine industrial base as a model▶ 1:06:32 and noted the Marine Corps is the only service to pass a clean audit▶ 1:31:16.

• Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC)▶ 0:57:25: Asked how to capitalize on Iran's weakness following the fall of the Assad regime▶ 0:58:26.

• Rep. Joe Courtney (D-CT)▶ 1:02:29: Highlighted AUKUS implementation including submarine sales to Australia and $3 billion invested in the US industrial base▶ 1:02:59, and asked about exempting Australia from steel/aluminum tariffs▶ 1:04:30.

• Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA)▶ 1:08:33: Said China spends over $700 billion annually on defense and can build 232 ships for every one the US builds▶ 1:09:03, pressing on closing the deterrence gap▶ 1:10:03.

• Rep. Donald Norcross (D-NJ)▶ 1:14:35: Asked how to drive a wedge in the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea axis▶ 1:14:35.

• Rep. Mark Green / Dr. Dean (R-TN)▶ 1:18:37: Asked about transitioning Ukraine from aid recipient to defense consumer using frozen Russian assets and mineral resources▶ 1:19:07.

• Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA)▶ 1:24:11: Pressed Keane on parochial defense programs, citing the Littoral Combat Ship and A-10▶ 1:24:41, and drew an analogy that a $20,000 drone could destroy a $5 million tank▶ 1:25:41.

• Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE)▶ 1:29:14: Cited 2.9% GDP defense spending as inadequate▶ 1:29:14 and asked about a $10 billion Taiwan arms backlog▶ 1:31:46.

• Rep. Salud Carbajal (D-CA)▶ 1:34:18: Asked about the importance of soft power and USAID, citing a $40 billion FY2023 budget affecting 130 countries▶ 1:34:48.

• Rep. Carlos Jimenez (R-FL)▶ 1:39:50: Argued for auditing rather than eliminating USAID▶ 1:39:50 and asked about regime change in Iran▶ 1:40:20.

• Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-PA)▶ 1:45:23: Questioned whether DOGE's ~20-40 staffers are qualified to review Pentagon spending▶ 1:46:24 and raised concerns about Secretary Hegseth calling NATO membership for Ukraine "unrealistic"▶ 1:48:24.

• Rep. James Moylan (Guam)▶ 1:50:27: Asked about federal support for Guam's infrastructure given its strategic importance and exposure to Chinese coercion▶ 1:50:57.

• Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY)▶ 1:54:29: Cited a Trump administration DASD nominee's comments calling Middle East interests "minimal to non-existent" and Iran's missile attacks "fairly moderate"▶ 1:55:30, and noted Hegseth spent $137,000 painting his home amid barracks disrepair▶ 1:58:31.

• Rep. Wes Hurd / Maguire (R-VA)▶ 1:59:31: Noted the US spends 2.7% of GDP on defense versus pre-WWII levels▶ 1:59:31 and asked what happens if Iran obtains a nuclear weapon▶ 2:03:02.

• Rep. Jimmy Panetta / Sablan-Cisneros (D-CA)▶ 2:04:32: Cited former SecDef Mattis's line about funding the State Department to avoid buying more ammunition▶ 2:05:02 and raised NATO/Five Eyes withdrawal risks▶ 2:09:04.

• Rep. Mark Harris (R-NC)▶ 2:10:35: Asked which legacy weapons systems should be cut▶ 2:10:35.

• Rep. Don Davis (D-NC)▶ 2:15:38: Asked about Ukraine's negotiating position needs including F-16s and pilot training▶ 2:16:08, and about Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan's pace of buildup▶ 2:18:39.

• Rep. Rudy Yakym / Mesmer (R-IN)▶ 2:21:11: Asked about China's hypersonic missile lead and the MOCT testbed program▶ 2:21:41, and about space-based interceptors▶ 2:24:12.

• Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO)▶ 2:26:14: Argued reform must be tied to funding increases, not separate▶ 2:27:15, and asked about capturing lessons learned from the Ukraine war▶ 2:28:15.

• Rep. Jeff Crank (R-CO)▶ 2:32:17: Asked how to avoid being "Goliath" against low-cost drone and cyber threats▶ 2:32:48, and about breaking the Iranian regime▶ 2:36:20.

• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard-style / Takuda (HI)▶ 2:37:20: Pressed for yes/no on whether the USAID freeze emboldened China and Russia▶ 2:38:51, and asked about China's inroads in the Pacific Islands, including the Cook Islands' pending agreement with China▶ 2:42:23.

• Rep. Juan Ciscomani / Hamedi (AZ)▶ 2:43:24: Asked whether US hypersonic and AI capabilities match adversaries'▶ 2:44:24.

• Rep. Derek Tran (D-CA)▶ 2:48:27: Asked about military recruiting challenges and the impact of anti-DEI actions on recruitment▶ 2:51:59.

• Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI), presiding▶ 2:53:29: Welcomed Democrats to a "Doge caucus," defended the A-10 platform▶ 2:54:00, and criticized careerism among senior officers▶ 2:57:31.

• Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-IL)▶ 2:58:31: Highlighted the Rock Island Arsenal and organic industrial base modernization▶ 2:59:32.

• Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-NH)▶ 3:03:35: Asked about consolidation in the defense industrial base, noting the drop from 51 to 5 prime contractors▶ 3:04:35.

• Rep. Pat Fallon (R-TX)▶ 3:09:08: Asked about contested logistics and access in the Indo-Pacific▶ 3:09:38.

• Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-VA)▶ 3:14:10: Discussed the "axis of autocrats" and asked about pressuring Russia at relatively low cost▶ 3:14:40.

• Rep. Jen Kiggans-style / unidentified member▶ 3:19:12: Asked about autonomous surface and undersea vessels closing the capability gap with China▶ 3:19:42.

• Rep. Wesley Bell (D-MO)▶ 3:24:47: Asked about the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency's role, citing its location in St. Louis▶ 3:25:17.

• Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL)▶ 3:29:19: Asked about lowering barriers to entry for small defense businesses via DIU-style innovation offices▶ 3:29:50.

• Rep. Addison Davis-style / vice ranking member Davis▶ 3:34:22: Closed with brief thanks to witnesses▶ 3:34:22.

Key moments

• Keane stated China outguns the US in every military category except submarines, having largely negated the US advantage in the Western Pacific through 20-plus years of investment▶ 0:37:15.

• Keane said defense spending is now 13.3% of the federal budget, down from a Cold War peak of 6.8%, calling the decline "a policy choice not a fiscal constraint"▶ 0:39:16.

• Keane disclosed that the Army could buy fewer than 100 drones this year through the program-of-record process versus a need for about 20,000, while Ukraine built 1.4 million drones domestically in one year▶ 1:51:23.

• Wittman stated China can build 232 ships for every one the US builds and is on track for 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035 with no arms-limitation treaty in sight▶ 1:09:33.

• Keane detailed a plan to fund Ukraine's defense without US taxpayer dollars by releasing frozen Russian assets in Europe and leveraging $26 trillion in Ukrainian mineral resources as investment collateral▶ 1:20:08.

• Ryan cited a newly appointed DASD for the Middle East calling US interests there "minimal to non-existent" and Iran's missile attacks "fairly moderate," which Keane said he "fundamentally disagree[d]" with▶ 1:56:00▶ 1:57:00.

• Karlin said only North Koreans appear to be dying for Russia's war effort, not Chinese or Iranian nationals, suggesting a wedge could be driven between the adversary coalition▶ 1:15:35.

• Keane said Iran is in the weakest position in its 44-year history and urged a "date certain" ultimatum for dismantling its nuclear program, backed by the threat of an Israeli strike supported by the US▶ 1:00:27▶ 1:00:58.

• Houlahan and Keane debated DOGE's competence, with Keane declining to judge based on staffers' age while Houlahan noted most are reportedly 19-25 years old lacking extensive business experience▶ 1:47:24▶ 1:47:54.

• Van Orden and Karlin clashed over USAID and Djibouti policy, with Van Orden calling US foreign aid "paying tribute" while Karlin defended soft power's role in maintaining the Djibouti base▶ 2:53:29▶ 2:59:34.

Metadata

CommitteeHouse Armed Services
Chamber / CongressHouse · 119th Congress
DateFebruary 12, 2025
TypeHearing
Witnesses
General Jack Keane — Chairman, Institute for the Study of War
Dr. Mara Karlin — Professor, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Videoyoutube
Transcript390 caption blocks · 31,772 words · 3:37:17 runtime
EventCongress.gov 117891