▶ 0:14:00Good morning. The subcommittee on environment will come to order. Without objection, the chair is authorized to declare recesses of the subcommittee at any time. Welcome to today's hearing entitled Protecting Lives and Property: Harnessing Innovative Technologies to Enhance Weather Forecasting. I recognize myself now for five minutes for an opening Good morning and thank you to our witnesses for being here today. And as we discussed before, I'm I'm grateful that you were able to rearrange your schedules.
▶ 0:14:27This was originally scheduled for last week and we had a lot of changes and then a lot of things have happened in the world since then that are going to be gerine to our conversation today. Uh but thanks again for rearranging your calendars and uh you know given recent events, the importance of hearing your perspectives on our nation's weather enterprise cannot be overstated. This morning's hearing addresses a topic that affects hundreds of millions of Americans daily. The technological advances that contribute to the enhancement of weather forecasting.
▶ 0:14:53The recent floods in Texas and New Mexico, the tornado outbreaks in March and May, and of course, the devastating wildfires in Southern California at the beginning of the year all highlight the need for higher quality weather forecasting. For years, Noah's mission has been to protect lives and property. However, as the world modernizes, this responsibility no longer rests solely on their shoulders. A robust private sector that embraces and fosters various technologies and techniques is essential for our progress in all areas related to weather.
▶ 0:15:23Today, we'll hear from witnesses who utilize this raw weather data to inform the public about imminent storms, what the weather will be like in the days to come, and what conditions we can expect throughout an entire season. From my conversations with farmers back home in Florida, I know that seasonal weather predictions are vital to American agriculture. Without accurate forecast in this sector, decisions about seasonal planting and harvest timing are less efficient, which reduces yields of crops that are the backbone of our economy.
▶ 0:15:51Flidians also recognize that accurate weather forecasts are crucial for their safety and well-being. Extended hurricane lead time combined with more accurate tracking and intensity predictions over the last decade has saved countless lives and businesses largely in part to the work put in by Noah's Hurricane Hurricane Hunter aircraft based in Lakeland, Florida, my hometown. In 2024 alone, they flew 67 missions totaling over 520 flight hours.
▶ 0:16:16Uh Representative Frost and I had an opportunity to fly into Hurricane Milton last hurricane season at the peak of the of its intensity. It was a strong cat 4 at the time, one of the strongest storms on record. And that was a great example of how quickly these storms can In the new era of artificial intelligence, leveraging advanced modeling and and enhance will enhance the accuracy and timeliness of our forecasts. This will give our nation a competitive advantage in industry development and resilience.
▶ 0:16:45Furthermore, it will help counter adversaries like China and Russia who are already advancing their own AI programs that will ultimately undermine the security and economic prosperity of the United States. Back in 2017, this committee laid the groundwork for Noah to engage in extended private public partnerships. The Weather Act of 2017 signed by President Trump directed Noah to establish a pilot program for purchasing commercial data. This has proven to be an overwhelming success and I'm proud to help lead the charge moving forward through its eventual reauthorization.
▶ 0:17:17As we continue to innovate, it is important that the investments we make have the most effective path to commercialization, fostering collaboration between Noah, academic institutions, and the private sector enables the federal government to procure the most cost-effective information resulting in services that maximize impact. I am committed to working with committee members to develop a co comprehensive legislative approach that addresses the expansion of this critical sector. I'd like to thank our witnesses again for being here and I look forward to hearing each of your testimonies.
▶ 0:17:47I now recognize the ranking member of the subcommittee for an opening statement. Well, thank you uh Chairman Franklin for convening today's hearing on how innovative technologies can strengthen weather forecasting and protect communities across the country. I also want to thank our witnesses uh for joining us, especially given the rescheduling of this hearing. As we all know, this hearing comes at a devastating time. Just last week, catastrophic flooding uh struck Texas, New Mexico, and North Carolina.
▶ 0:18:18Texas lost at least 134 lives, 37 of whom were children, and at least 101 people remain missing. In New Mexico, a man and two children, ages seven and four, were killed. Tropical Storm Chantel with uh at least two tornadoes hit North Carolina with one woman confirmed dead. Entire families were lost, livelihoods destroyed, communities shattered.
▶ 0:18:47To families grieving this unimaginable loss, and to the first responders still working through the wreckage, our hearts are with you. Unfortunately, this won't be the last disaster we face. Climate change is accelerating extreme weather and we must do more to prepare our communities. We need to confront a hard truth. The United States cannot lead in weather prediction. Cannot harness innovation and cannot protect lives and property without people. Meteorologists who issue forecasts and warnings.
▶ 0:19:18Hydraologists who model flood risks. Climate scientists who analyze long-term trends. Data analysts and modelers who improve forecast accuracy. emergency managers who translate forecasts into action. Dedicated public servants, many represented here today, who work around the clock ensuring our communities are warned and protected in real time. These experts are the backbone of America's weather enterprise. But this administration, the Trump administration, is taking a sledgehammer to that backbone.
▶ 0:19:49On May 2nd, five former directors of the National Weather Service wrote to President Trump with a stark warning. Our worst nightmare is that forecast offices will be so understaffed that there will be needless loss of life. This administration has already haphazardly gutted 15% of the National Weather Services workforce. These were career public servants, scientists and forecasters, people who devoted their lives to keeping Americans safe.
▶ 0:20:19Now the remaining staff are asked to do the impossible. operate at full capacity with reduced numbers in an above average Atlantic hurricane season. It's unacceptable. We're flying blind into the eye of the storm. Quite we're already seeing the consequences.
▶ 0:20:36And while it's too early to draw final conclusions about the tragic flooding in Texas, early reporting suggests that staff shortages in local weather forecasting offices may have impaired coordination with local officials. In the San Angelo forecasting offices, critical positions were were vacant, including the meteorologist in charge, senior hydraologists, and a staff forecaster.
▶ 0:21:00Nearby, San Antonio's forecasting offices lacked a warning coordination meteorologist and science officer. These are not optional roles. These are lifesaving roles. We need a fully staffed and well-resourced National Weather Service. Full stop. Not just to help predict storms, but to help communities prepare, coordinate emergency response, and warn Americans when mere minutes matter.
▶ 0:21:27And yet, in the face of growing disaster, Trump's proposed 2026 budget would eliminate funding for Noah's Office of Oceananic and Atmospheric Research, including climate, weather, and ocean labs and cooperative institutes such as those serving on our witness panel today, slash Noah's workforce by an additional And extract over $1.8 billion from its current budget, weakening the core services that Americans rely on.
▶ 0:21:56Thankfully, uh, it seems like congressional appropriators care more about protecting Americans from extreme weather than we've seen from the Trump administration. This is playing out real time back home in in my home state of Rhode Island. Last year, we celebrated the groundbreaking of the new marine operation center, a nearly $150 million investment in Noah's research fleet in Rhode Island's blue economy. But with the hiring freeze still in place, there's no guarantee that it'll be staffed when it opens. That's not efficiency.
▶ 0:22:26In fact, it is waste, fraud, and abuse of taxpayers dollars. That's why last week, ranking member Lafrren and I demanded that Secretary Lutnik testify before this very committee come and give answers. The staffing crisis at the National Weather Service is a public safety threat. We need answers and more importantly, we need a plan, not concepts of a plan. We need a plan. So today, let's not talk about innovation in the abstract.
▶ 0:22:53Let's talk about what it takes to make that innovation real. Investment in data and commitment to people and trust in science. Let's protect lives and property, not just in name. Let's protect in practice. So, thank you and I yield back, Mr. Thank you, ranking member Amo. I ask unanimous consent that the representative from Texas, Representative Fluger, be allowed to sit on the dis with the subcommittee on environment and question the witnesses for no more than five minutes, which shall include any time yielded to such member from a member of the subcommittee.
▶ 0:23:23Without objection, so ordered. I now recognize chairman the chairman of the full committee uh representative Babin for his uh Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Good morning to everyone. And uh I want to thank all the uh folks here on this committee and uh also want to thank the witnesses that are here today. We're looking forward to your expert testimony uh and we hope to bring some clarity uh to some of the things that are being uh being expressed.
▶ 0:23:54Uh today's discussion examines how burgeoning technologies can strengthen our nation's weather forecasting capabilities. This conversation is both timely and necessary. Recent events. I'm from the great state of Texas. Across the country remind us why this hearing matters to protect lives and property.
▶ 0:24:16Less than two weeks ago, a flash flood in central Texas tragically claimed 132 lives, including over 30 children with more than 100 people still missing. The Guadalupe River rose 26 feet in 45 minutes after 20 to eight, excuse me, after 8 to 20 ines of rain fell. The sheer scale of this natural disaster is unfathomable.
▶ 0:24:42A wall of water nearly three stories high carried almost 11 million pounds of water every second. This tragedy is devastating. I am personally familiar with this area since I was a teenager. For the families of those who were lost, for the communities that sustained significant damage in a matter of minutes, it was devastating. And for the nation as a whole, many of whom, myself included, have generational ties to the area that was flooded.
▶ 0:25:11My this catastrophe has been deeply personal for me as many of my grandchildren attend camp there each year along the the Guadalupe River. One of my granddaughters attended the first term of Camp Mystic, which ended just a week before the flood. Another of my granddaughters was supposed to be at Camp Mystic that weekend, but missed it this year only because she needed some knee surgery.
▶ 0:25:35Four of my grandsons were attending Camp Stewart, just a few miles from Camp Mystic, where I served as a counselor back in the 1960s. Thankfully, they all escaped harm there. Days later, another flash flood in New Mexico caused the Riodosa River to rise 20 feet in less than an hour, tragically claiming the lives of two more children. These events underscore the absolute urgent need to improve our weather forecasting abilities.
▶ 0:26:05We must enhance our modeling capabilities to extend prediction lead times and increase accuracy and rainfall forecasts. But just as important as forecasting is ensuring warnings reach the right people in time. In both disasters, the National Weather Service timely, excuse me, issued timely and accurate alerts. Emergency communications were activated. Warnings were sent directly to cell phones and weather radios.
▶ 0:26:36Still, those alerts were not enough to prevent the catastrophe that unfolded in the early morning hours on our nation's independence July the 4th. During the 115th Congress, this committee had the foresight to advance legislation to address some of the shortcomings of the National Weather Service ways of doing things.
▶ 0:26:57The first real update of weather priorities since President Trump signed the Weather Research and Forecasting Act of 2015, which has spurred innovation in forecasting and creating opportunities for greater involvement of the private sector. Noah is authorized to develop a pilot program to purchase commercial weather data.
▶ 0:27:20Artificial intelligence has progressed to a stage where it can be used in concert with traditional modeling techniques to provide even greater lead times to allow people to get to safety. However, the disasters that occurred earlier this month clearly demonstrate the need for us to do more.
▶ 0:27:38Unfortunately, the focus of our government over the last several years has been less about securing our present safety and more about handing out favors to special interest groups with a philosophy of the Green New Deal. There's always room for improvement. This hearing will highlight where progress is being made and what further steps can be taken to advance our most critical mission and that is protecting lives and protecting property.
▶ 0:28:08I look forward to hearing from our expert witnesses and I and Mr. Chairman I yield back the balance of my time. Thank you Chairman Babin. I now recognize the ranking member of the full committee for a statement. Thank you, uh, Chairman Franklin and Ranking Member Amo. And I want to thank the witnesses uh, for sharing your expertise and your time with us today. We, as in both Republicans and Democrats, have consistently worked together uh, to ensure that we did our part in supporting Noah and the weather enterprise.
▶ 0:28:38We have to continue to support both the research necessary uh to further understand and predict our environment and the translation of that knowledge into products and services to support communities and the economy. On July 4th, our country witnessed what a devastating flood can do to a community in Texas and New Mexico. uh families affected by that catastrophic flooding and their lost loved ones continue to be in our thoughts.
▶ 0:29:08I also want to acknowledge and thank the first responders, the emergency personnel, and other heroes who put their own lives at risk to help people. This committee has held several hearings to discuss the progress in weather research and forecasting that has been made since the passage of the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017.
▶ 0:29:30We've spoken to many experts in this field to evaluate what kinds of research and resources may be needed to further innovate and strengthen our forecasting capabilities and warning systems. In the last Congress, I was proud to join former science committee chairman Frank Lucas in putting together a bill that does just that. The bill was further strengthened by many good amendments uh from members of this committee on both sides of the aisle.
▶ 0:29:56We reintroduced that bill last month entitled the Weather Reauthorization Act of 2025. This collaborative bipartisan bill modernizes and extends critical weather research programs, improves the communication of weather and climate information and authorizes funding for these important programs in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. and I look forward to working with you, Chairman Babin, uh to advance this important bill.
▶ 0:30:26In the meantime, I have to say this administration is actively undermining the very progress and continued advancement of Noah's weather research and forecasting capabilities that is the very subject of this hearing. Despite public statements from this administration denying that they've made any cuts to Noah or to the weather service, they have in fact cut off some very essential services that this agency provides.
▶ 0:30:51Hundreds of Noah employees are being fired or bullied into leaving is causing critical services and products to be abruptly discontinued and core experience and knowledge is being lost. They even suspended training and collaborative exercises that weather coordination meteorologists conduct with local emergency managers and public safety officials. What has been proposed for the Noah budget by Trump and Secretary Lutnik is really, I think, quite foolish.
▶ 0:31:20The July 4th disaster in central Texas should be a wake-up call for all of us. More Americans will die needlessly if we let this uh continue. Just highlighting a few of the many horrendous proposals in this budget, the administration seeks to decimate environmental research by terminating all of the weather, climate, and ocean laboratories and cooperative institutes.
▶ 0:31:44They intend to eliminate the Noah research office and slash funding for the US weather research and tornado severe storm research programs. The proposal will also degrade Noah's future critical satellite infrastructure. We just witnessed the outcry when the defense department's meteorological satellite program abruptly stopped sharing critical weather data.
▶ 0:32:07Only after an urgent request from Noah and NASA did DoD extend access to the data, but only till the end of this month. Satellite data is critical for our weather forecast, and maintaining Noah's core satellite programs and continuing to advance such capabilities remains a public good. The severe weather events we've witnessed this month from Texas, New Mexico, North Carolina, New York City underscore the importance of supporting the National Weather Service.
▶ 0:32:37We support them by making sure that all the weather forecasting offices and prediction centers across the nation are fully staffed with access to all of the tools and training required to be successful in their jobs. And just as important, we also support the National Weather Service by continuing to improve the lead time and accuracy of forecast modeling and communication services. That's done through research. Uh so with that, Mr. Chairman, I yield back. Thank you, Ranking Member Lofern.
▶ 0:33:09Let me now introduce our witnesses. Our first witness today is Mr. Thomas Cavitt. He's vice president of government affairs and strategy at a leading American weather technology company. Mr. Mr. Kavitt leads government strategy and business development across North America where he works closely with federal agencies including Noah, NASA, and the Department of Defense to advance innovative weather capabilities and strengthen weather resilience. Our next witness is Dr. John Nielsen Gammon.
▶ 0:33:36He is currently a registered professor of atmospheric sciences and also serves as a Texas state climatologist and director of the Southern Regional Climate Center. He graduated from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology with a PhD in 1990. He does research on various types of extreme weather from droughts to floods as well as air pollution and computer modeling. Our third witness is Dr.
▶ 0:33:57Wed Abdelotti as director of the cooperative institute for research and environmental sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder where he is also a professor in the geology or geography department. Dr. Dr. Abdeladi's research focuses on the use of satellites and aircraft to understand how Earth's glaciers, sheets, and ice sheet and and sea ice are changing the implications of those changes of for the Earth's system. And our final witness is Dr.
▶ 0:34:24Jes Gupta, founder and CEO of Saluran AI, a Washington-based company pioneering large-scale AI foundation models for the physical world to address some of the most critical challenges facing our planet. Salorian's flagship technology, the Generative Forecasting Transformer, GTF or or GFT, is a is a is a frontier weather foundation model delivering state-of-the-art weather forecast hours earlier than other operational systems. Easy for me to say.
▶ 0:34:54Uh, Mr. Cavin, I know recognize you uh for five minutes testimony. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Good morning, Chairman Franklin, Ranking Member Ammo, Chairman Babin, Ranking Member Lofrren, members of the committee. Thank you for inviting me to testify before you today. It is an honor to be here as a representative of the commercial weather industry to discuss emerging technologies that enhance weather forecasting.
▶ 0:35:18My name is Thomas Kavitt and I serve as a senior leader at Tomorrow IO where I lead government strategy and business development in North America. I bring over a decade of experience working at the intersection of technology, infrastructure resilience, and national security. I'm also a member of the Department of Commerce's Environmental Technologies Trade Advisory Committee and a veteran having served as a Green Beret in US Army Special Forces.
▶ 0:35:43Tomorrow IO's mission is to equip governments, industries, and individuals with advanced weather intelligence to make faster, more informed decisions in the face of weather-driven challenges. We build solutions across the entire value chain from proprietary space-based observations and AIdriven models to real-time decision support platforms. While we operate a firstofits-kind commercial weather satellite constellation, our work extends far beyond space with AI and machine learning embedded throughout our systems.
▶ 0:36:14The weather act of 2017 was pivotal in galvanizing our industry industry and fueling tomorrow IO's Tomorrow IO has raised over $300 million since 2016 and now serves customers ranging from Noah, NASA, and the US Air Force to global Fortune 500 companies. Weather is not only an economic and public health concern, but also a critical national security issue. Tomorrow IO is already delivering significant impact across the US economy.
▶ 0:36:43We're helping agricultural suppliers reroute shipments, supporting specialty pharmaceutical companies delivering life-saving medicine, helping utility providers prepare for and mitigate weather impacts to the power grid, and we're saving airlines tens of thousands a month per hub by avoiding unnecessary weather impacts. America's weather challenges are growing more urgent, and meeting them requires speed, agility, and innovation that traditional systems alone can't deliver.
▶ 0:37:11Fortunately, commercial innovation has lowered the barriers to entry in both weather and space. Just as commercial launch revolutionized access to orbit, we are now transforming weather forecasting using private capital and technology with government as a strategic partner to deliver faster, more affordable, and more capable Tomorrow IO's deployment of a constellation of precipitation radars and microwave sounders represents the first ever commercial multi-payload weather satellite constellation.
▶ 0:37:42Tomorrow IO is helping to lead a paradigm shift where commercial providers are filling the atmosphere with new sensors from low Earth orbit and the upper atmosphere down to ground and sea level, capturing vital data and closing long-standing observational By working across the full technology stack from data collection to forecast delivery, we can adapt quickly to user needs, operational gaps, and we build greater resilience into our national forecasting infrastructure.
▶ 0:38:10The goal is not to replace government capabilities, but to complement and strengthen them. Public private models have already proven their value across the space domain, delivering high performance at lower cost. Weather is next with dual use applicability, the ability to take on high-risk innovation and access substantial private capital. Commercial weather providers offer the speed, agility, and scalability the nation needs to stay ahead.
▶ 0:38:36Many authorizations from the 2017 Weather Act have expired or need updating as our industry has matured. We strongly support the bipartisan committee's efforts to reauthorize the Weather Act this year. Key provisions include directing Noah to evaluate commercial options before building its own systems, moving beyond pilot programs to focus on operational use, filling observational gaps, protecting private sector data, and improving forecasts for threats like hurricanes and atmospheric rivers.
▶ 0:39:07By leveraging private sector innovation, the US can escape the decadesl long cycle of costly, complex weather missions. Despite outspending Europe, US weather forecasting consistently lags behind global leaders, weakening our strategic edge. Empowering agencies like Noah to partner with the private sector will help restore US leadership in weather forecasting. In conclusion, I want to thank the committee for your time and commend your leadership in addressing this vital issue.
▶ 0:39:34We stand ready to partner with you to protect lives and property and ensure US leadership and weather intelligence. Thank you and I look forward to your questions. Thank you, Mr. Cav. I now recognize Dr. Nielsson Gammon for five minutes to present testimony. Thank you, Chairman Franklin, Ranking Member Amo, um Chairman Babin, and uh Ranking Member Lofrren. Thank you for the opportunity to testify before you today on the Weather Act reauthorization.
▶ 0:40:00Um I appreciate all you do to help Americans avoid dangerous weather and help us make well-informed decisions regarding the risks that weather and climate throw at us. Uh while I'm professor at Texas&M University and Texas State Quantologist, I'm testifying for myself and not speaking for my employer or the state of Uh today I'd like to discuss a few examples from my personal experience of how Noah's weather related activities, particularly the ones contemplated in the Weather Reauthorization Act, are critical to the well-being of Texas and to the
▶ 0:40:30rest of the United States. As you all know, Texas recently suffered a devastating weather tragedy. Floods are not just Texas's problem. As we've seen in New Mexico, Kentucky, and North Carolina this year, in Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee, and Florida last year, uh since the 2015 flood in the Texas Hill Country, the state of Texas has focused on filling gaps in the existing real-time observing network.
▶ 0:40:57Many other states also operate mezzanets to monitor on the ground weather conditions for public safety, agriculture, and many other applications. This data is then available for the National Weather Service to detect emerging severe weather threats, provide ground truth for radar estimates of extreme rainfall, and improve warnings of hazardous weather. I'm grateful for the National Mezzanet program, which is included in the weather reauthorization act, for helping to offset some of the costs of operating these mezzanets.
▶ 0:41:25Um, the value of such data is going to continue to grow as artificial intelligence is trained on local highdensity The Weather Authorization Act will also help move Noah forward in replacing an existing radar network with state-of-the-art technology. Uh, increasing the number of radars in a modernized network, both publicly and through private partnerships, would help fill key gaps in areas such as eastern Pennsylvania and southern Texas. U floods in Texas tend to end droughts.
▶ 0:41:55Unfortunately, uh, that's not the way to do it. But like many climate state offices, state climate offices, we are heavily involved in local drought monitoring as well. Every week our office collects information from our NWS offices and local stakeholders on drought within the state and makes recommendations to the author of the US drought monitor. The US drought monitor is the basis for hundreds of millions of dollars annually in drought relief from the USDA to ranchers.
▶ 0:42:21Uh, one day I received a call from a rancher reporting severe drought conditions at his ranch and wondered why the US drought monitor wasn't indicating the presence of drought there. I looked into it and found that the only nearby rain gauge was way at the other end of his county. His drought just wasn't visible with standard tools.
▶ 0:42:39So with funding from the USDA and from Noah, we developed a way to take the precipitation estimated by the National Weather Service for the sake of flood forecasting and convert it into measurements of drought severity and its variations within individual counties. Noah now supports the delivery of that drought tool through our Southern Regional Climate Center. In addition to research funding, the weather act authorizes funding for the national integrated drought information system or NIDAS.
▶ 0:43:10We work directly with NIDAS through its Southern Plains Drought Early Warning System to improve the ability of folks in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas to understand, anticipate, and deal with drought. We're also trying to figure out how to compare the droughts of the past to present day droughts, which can feature more rainfall but hotter temperatures. We have a project that's been recommended for funding under a joint program from NIDAS and NOA's oceanic atmospheric research or OAR.
▶ 0:43:37We're hoping to dive into that next year pending funding of NIDAS and OAR such as would be authorized by the weather reauthorization act. We're subject to all sorts of severe weather in Texas, not just extreme rainfall. And the National Weather Service is critical in how we deal with that. They work closely with our division of emergency management, embedding personnel in our state level emergency operations center and coordinating with broadcasters, emergency managers, and other state and county officials.
▶ 0:44:07The emphasis in the weather reauthorization act on effective communication of weather hazards is critical for ensuring that people understand the weather situation when their lives are at risk. Uh, an effective system requires understanding how and why people are making decisions about what to do when severe weather threatens and that can vary from community to community and even household to household. Thank you again for the opportunity to testify before you and I look forward to answering any questions you may have.
▶ 0:44:38Thank you. I now recognize Dr. Abdelotti for five minutes to present testimony. Thank you, Chairman Franklin, Ranking Member Amo, and members of the Thank you for the opportunity to testify on this very important matter. I greatly appreciate the work of this committee and its bipartisan efforts to examine the capabilities and opportunities to improve weather forecasting to serve the interests of the nation.
▶ 0:45:06The US's historical success in improving forecast accuracy and extending lead times has been a direct result of robust investments in observations as well as research on the physical processes that drive weather and how they evolve on both the short and long terms. The suite of observational capabilities from ground to space anchors models and informs forecasts in powerful ways.
▶ 0:45:32While the focus of this hearing is on new approaches, it's important to recognize the value of traditional observing systems for informing models and supporting forecasts. These capabilities are continually being improved upon. The upgrade of the NEXRAD radar system to phased array radar will enable faster, more accurate, and targeted observations during severe weather.
▶ 0:45:56Newly emerging drone technologies, airborne, surface, and subsurface can provide a powerful complement to aircraft and satellite observations. These drones are not a substitute, but they have demonstrated their value and great potential to be one element of a suite of impactful observing capabilities. Satellite observations in particular have been a powerful and continually evolving element of a robust observing strategy.
▶ 0:46:24Noah's fleet of weather satellites, both geostationary and polar orbiting, make foundational observations that provide the context, scale, and perspective of weather system structure and behavior that are necessary to truly understand their development, dynamic characteristics, and their interaction with other elements of the Earth's system. In so doing, they are fundamental to accurate predict prediction and hazard detection, and they inform response and management.
▶ 0:46:54These space-based observing capabilities have their roots in research, technology, and mission investments at NASA, which produces state-of-the-art observatories and provides fundamental insights into the physical processes that shape weather. The highest priority new space-based weather observations identified by the National Academy of Scienc's decadal survey underpin NASA's atmospheric o observing system mission AOS.
▶ 0:47:24One key focus of NASA's recent Earth science investments. AOS and related missions and research are essential for advancing our understanding of atmospheric processes and improving predictive capabilities. The fate of AOS and other critical missions and research remains unclear, however, as the administration's budget proposal for 2026 seeks to eliminate or drastically reduce them.
▶ 0:47:51Translating these observations into meaningful outcomes from the Noah satellites, the NASA satellites, the groundbased instruments, and others requires research into how the processes function, evolve, and manifest themselves in ways that impact humans. This importance is recognized in the weather act reauthorization which supports research that complements and enables operational capabilities.
▶ 0:48:17Much of this is carried out through Noah's office of oceanic and atmospheric research and other line offices all of which maintain strong partnerships with university-based cooperative institutes that conduct research and train the talent in support of Noah's mission and broader societal objectives.
▶ 0:48:36I am hopeful that in deliberating the 2026 budget, Congress recognizes the value of this research and continues to invest in Noah's and other federal agency's new and sustained observational capabilities, enabling technologies, modeling, and overall research capacity. Finally, I'd like to specifically state that realizing the benefits of these investments requires investing in people.
▶ 0:49:03Whether it's for making observations, examining the physics, developing models, interpreting results, making forecasts, or communicating risks, some of the best investments we can make are in people today and for the future. I thank you for your time and attention and I welcome any questions. Thank you, Dr. Abdelotti. I now recognize Dr. Gupta for five minutes of Chairman Franklin, Ranking Member Aml, and distinguished members of the subcommittee.
▶ 0:49:34Thank you for this opportunity to testify on the profound impact artificial intelligence is having on the domain of weather forecasting. My name is Jes Kupta, CEO of Surin AI, a company dedicated to transforming our understanding of weather and making its impact in the physical world more predictable using large-scale AI. My work was recently published in the journal nature.
▶ 0:49:58For decades, weather forecasting has meant massive governmentr run I'm here to tell you that this paradigm has shifted. The same AI revolution that transformed how we understand language and brought us GBT is now transforming weather modeling. For the first time, AI models like Aurora and GFT can learn the physics of the entire Earth system as a unified whole.
▶ 0:50:25Not only do we get higher accuracies on a variety of environmental forecasting task, we also cut compute costs by 99%. Our forecast that takes supercomput hours to run now takes minutes on a single GPU. Over the last year, my small startup has been able to develop and operationalize global weather forecasts that outperform the equivalent European and Noah forecast.
▶ 0:50:52US regional rapid refresh forecasts that outperform the equivalent NOA forecast, hurricane track forecasts, which are highly accurate and comparable to getting the official National Hurricane Center forecast a day ahead. More importantly, working with our early clients, we have been able to demonstrate how the same foundation model allows weather modeling together with its infrastructure impact to actually help decision- making on the ground.
▶ 0:51:21For example, forecasting high impact events like icing on transmission lines to help avoid grid outages. These capabilities emerge from a single foundation model that has learned the whole earth system. This leap has been possible thanks to one priceless national asset. Decades of highquality publicly available weather data from NASA and Noah. This data is the bedrock of the AI revolution in weather.
▶ 0:51:49We must understand that any reduction in this public data stream is the direct threat to American innovation and our leadership in this field. While the technology has raced ahead, the frameworks for public private collaboration unfortunately have not. The process for integrating cutting edge models from a small business like mine is simply too slow and opaque. As a nation, we risk falling behind. We're not leveraging the unique strengths of American businesses.
▶ 0:52:21This leads to the core of my testimony. To reclaim and extend US leadership, Noah's role has to evolve from being the primary producer of all forecasts to being the primary enabler and validator of a competitive innovative national We propose a strategy built on three First, empower innovation. The traditional government contracting process is too slow for AI.
▶ 0:52:49We asked you to direct Noah to create agile ways for engaging small tech companies. We need clear on-ramps to get proven breakthrough technologies from the private sector into the hands of American people fast. Second, establish a national weather model test bed. To create a truly competitive ecosystem, we must measure innovation objectively. We urge you to fund Noah to establish a public standardized framework to evaluate new models.
▶ 0:53:19This creates a level playing field where the best technology wins. Whether it comes from the government labs or a small startup, it positions Noah as the world's gold standard validator, our role of immense strategic And third, protect and enhance our national data infrastructure. This is the non-negotiable foundation. AI models are built on data.
▶ 0:53:43We urge the committee to ensure our nation's environmental data archives are protected, modernized, and remain openly accessible to fuel American innovation. Members of the committee, we are at a pivotal moment. The technology to deliver significantly better forecast exists today. The question is no longer about technology. It's about whether America will lead this transformation. Thank you. I welcome your questions. I thank the witnesses for their testimony.
▶ 0:54:12And I now recognize myself for five minutes for questions. As I mentioned previously, my home state of Florida is no stranger to hurricanes. We all know that. My hometown, as I said, has the hurricane hunters based at Lakeland Airport. Uh Miami is the home of the National Hurricane Center. They even named the the University of Miami after the hurricane. So, uh we're we're very versed in hurricanes. Unfortunately, we have way too much practice and we we have had a lot of practice in preparation and resilience and we've gotten better at that over the years.
▶ 0:54:39And a lot of that's been driven by the forecast and the and the better and better forecasts we're getting. As we've experienced the last few years, we're seeing a lot of these hurricanes intensify rapidly. Uh sometimes from a cat one or cat 2 to a four or five even overnight. So timing is critical and and best predictions of where they're going to make landfall are important. When you have basically a thumb sticking out in the Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of America that's uh got 24 million people. where that storm makes landfall is critical on how we determine to how we evacuate millions of people away from the coast.
▶ 0:55:10Um, so on that originally planned for 2026 but moved up to July of 2025, DoD announced that it's going to discontinue the ingestion, processing, and distribution of all defense meteorological satellite program DMSP data to Noah, citing security concerns, and there are some valid security concerns there and national security is important. But these sensors have been critical to determining storm centers, especially at night, to all of our witnesses.
▶ 0:55:38And if we could, since there's there's four of you and I got five minutes, if you could try to limit to maybe 30 seconds, what can be done to best supplement this DMSP data moving forward as a program is phased out? And then also, in your opinion, is DoD living up to its commitments after the cancellation of INOS to gather and provide early morning orbit coverage to complement Noah's joint polar satellite system. Mr. Cav, if you could lead off. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
▶ 0:56:05Um well, let me first start by saying that microwave imagers and microwave sounders, microwave imager is the uh type of sensor that's on DMSB are critically important for hurricane forecasting, but also just the backbone of our numerical weather prediction kind of medium range uh forecasting capabilities. So, uh the loss of that system is is significant.
▶ 0:56:23Uh if you couple that with the shutdown of the pose systems from Noah in June of this year, we've lost about 60% of our capacity as a nation uh for microwave imagers and sounders, which is quite a high number. Um tomorrow IO actually has seven microwave sounders on orbit today providing that operational data. And while the imagers and the sounders, there's some nuances to the sort of differences in them.
▶ 0:56:46They they both really provide that early detection of intensification that you mentioned being able to see the eye formation, the curved band before that uh and and at night as well as you said because the the geostationary sensors can only see the the cloud tops and sort of infer what's happening within the storm. In terms of whether DoD is meeting its its mission to provide that early morning orbit, uh WSFM, which is the weather system followon microwave, which they launched in in 2024, is in that orbit.
▶ 0:57:15Uh but it's not the exact copy of SSMIS on DMSP. It's a it's a slightly different frequency range. Noah's also launching their quick sounder program uh potentially in 2026, and together those would fill that early morning gap for the most part. But I'll also say that this this concept of kind of early morning, early afternoon architecture is a bit outdated.
▶ 0:57:37If you compare what our constellation is capable of today, because we fly in both polar and mid- latatitude orbits, we actually achieve two-hour revisit globally throughout the day. So this idea of kind of spacing your your sensing throughout the day is is irrelevant when you can meet a subhourly revisit, which is what we'll achieve by the end of this year.
▶ 0:57:58Um, so I think it's important in terms of filling these gaps to your question that you know Noah be able to access these data sets particularly as we're entering this this severe hurricane season this year. Thank you Dr. Nilson Gammon. I'll just comment that having a smooth transition of observing system is critical for being able to optimize the technology and how we use it. I'll let the satellite experts talk in more Dr. Abdeli, I'll reiterate that comment.
▶ 0:58:24Um there are some capabilities uh we use these in the Arctic for monitoring sea ice um evolution as well. Um not as familiar with the meteorological applications but what is critical with satellite capabilities is overlap and my understanding is the end of life of DMSP is about a year away.
▶ 0:58:46So it isn't clear to me why there well if there are security concerns I defer to those experts but uh it comes at a great cost because that overlap and crossc calibration um time is needed for that and we're losing that time for reasons I don't understand right thank you Dr.
▶ 0:59:03Gupta, I would reiterate like long horizon archives are fairly important and as as we change observational systems, you'll need to have them overlapping for ideally at least a year to complete the full season. Great. All right. Thank you. I now I now recognize the ranking member from Rhode Island for five minutes of questions. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
▶ 0:59:24Um Rhode Island like many coastal states faces compound risks from storm surge to sea level rise, coastal flooding uh and the like. Uh improving our ability to predict these events requires way more integrated environmental data including soil uh permeability, coastal topography and regional uh se uh sea level rise.
▶ 0:59:49And we need this, you know, data to fully understand and prepare for how extreme weather will affect coastal communities and infrastructure across the country. And so, you know, as we alluded to uh earlier and I've heard in some of your remarks, uh President Trump's FY26 budget proposes eliminating Noah's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research along with its climate, weather, uh and ocean laboratories and 16 cooperative institutes.
▶ 1:00:17institutions that provide much of the data anal and analysis needed for this kind of integrated risk assessment. Unfortunately, uh as I I referenced, you know, the initial signs are that congressional appropriators are are going to move more in the direction uh that is necessary uh to address the real urgent public safety needs here. Uh Dr.
▶ 1:00:39Uh Abdelotti, uh I wanted you to elaborate and on some of your comments earlier about the consequences uh of the elimination of Noah's research uh capabilities and how would losing observational data and scientific expertise affect our ability to anticipate and and respond to extreme weather events?
▶ 1:01:01I it is complex but I think for those who may be tuning into this topic for the first time because of recent events I'd really like to hear what the research component uh means to our capacities. Sure. The research component uh turns those observations into information and those observations are the product of exceptional technical development capability.
▶ 1:01:26But at the end of the day uh data is not information until it's been examined, interpreted, understood. The research uh also enables stuff we take for granted now, the kinds of predictions we take for granted now um as being routine to develop. They are a product of past investments and research.
▶ 1:01:48So when we talk about looking to the future and uh the forecasting capabilities and the capabilities to ensure resilience uh we are talking about the outcomes of research the work of the people. So the data are critical. We're talking about observations here. Uh the capacity to analyze them through artificial intelligence techniques um certainly enhance our ability to interpret that information.
▶ 1:02:15But at the end of the day, the fundamental physics and the understanding of the physics, the chemistry and the implications requires research. And what you say there illuminates a point that you know I think you'll hear uh from many of us that there is an essential federal role an essential role that is played by the the research that takes place that's funded uh by uh this congress and that needs to be uh supported in a
▶ 1:02:45robust way moving forward. Absolutely. And I I do uh take to heart the comments of the other witnesses about um you know new and innovative ways of looking at and doing things. That's absolutely a critical part of a broad portfolio. But foundational to it is the development of knowledge is the interpretation of what we see that can be augmented by better observations by new analytical techniques.
▶ 1:03:13But at the end of the day, it takes basic physics, an understanding of the physics. It takes people trained in those capabilities to turn that information into meaningful outcomes. Thank you. Uh, as we've previously discussed, President Trump and Commerce Secretary Lutnik have paused or cancelled uh Noah contracts for a range of critical products and services, some with little or no explanation.
▶ 1:03:38And at the same time, the ongoing staffing shortages caused by hiring freezes and mass terminations have hollowed out Noah's operational capacity. Uh, Dr. Neielson Gam, how are funding delays or staffing reductions at Noah affecting the work of the cooperative institutes or regional climate centers, including your ability to uh deliver climate data, forecasting tools and and public services?
▶ 1:04:03Yeah, our tools get used quite widely by the public, by various uh private sectors, by broadcast meteorologists and so forth. We had a a 4-day pause in our contract at end of April because of waiting for approval all the way through the Department of Congress and renewal of that. Uh we're up for um the supplemental funding that has been authorized in previous budgets by Congress. Um but we don't know whether that's going to be approved and then the whole program is up for um recompete this year.
▶ 1:04:32And basically we're we're waiting to see whether whether Congress and the administration are going to support um the services we provide to the country going forward. Well, thank you for that. And you know, when we talk about the impact of minutes mattering, a 4-day pause uh seems pretty problematic. With that, uh I yield back. Thank you. Thank you, Ranking Member Amo. I now recognize my colleague from Oregon, Miss Bonamichi, for five minutes questions. Thank you, Mr. chairman and and uh ranking member and thank you to the witnesses.
▶ 1:05:02I also want to acknowledge I know uh chairman Babbot Babin was here um his personal um connection to the tragedy in Texas. So this is a time when Americans are facing increasingly deadly storms and floods and heat waves. So accurate and timely weather forecasts are critical. Uh instead of strengthening Noah, which is of course the backbone of our weather enterprise, the Trump administration is slashing funds, gutting staff, and continuing its ongoing pursuit to privatize essential functions.
▶ 1:05:31Now, I want to follow up on Mikey Member Amo's comments. Uh this is the the weather forecasting bill. People say 2017, but I've been working on this since 2013. Uh and it took a while to get there. Uh, and I do support public private partnerships, but I also want to emphasize that Noah and the National Weather Service are critical for operational integrity and public safety and access. We cannot sideline the essential scientific research that powers our forecasting system.
▶ 1:05:58And much of the innovation we see in weather forecasting, which is a good thing, derives from decades of federally funded basic research and open Noah data sets. So does the private sector have a responsibility to build on rather than replace Noah's public mission? If you could just answer it and I hope you can keep this a yes or no just because I have other questions. Mr. Kavitt, Dr. Nielson Gammon. Dr. Abdelotti. Dr. Gupta. Thank you so much. So, so Mr.
▶ 1:06:28Kavat, how do you and other industry leaders plan to deliver forecasting products that enhance Noah's services? What safeguards should Congress consider so this remains a successful partnership? Well, Congresswoman, we already benefit greatly, as you said, from the both the research and the operational tools that that Noah and other agencies have developed in this in this industry.
▶ 1:06:47Uh but there's also a bit of a paradigm shift that's happening where the private sector is also contributing that level of scientific input and innovation and and building tools to help complement the Noah the data that Noah has and and providing data to Noah to fill gaps that it has as well in terms of safeguards. You know, I think having independent thirdparty validations, making sure that the data is sound, making sure that it's it's reliable because it protects lives and property is critical. Thank you so much. And Dr.
▶ 1:07:16Abdulati since uh the beginning of this year and Donald Trump's inauguration at least 1,500 Noah employees including meteorologists data scientists technical staff were terminated or forced to resign. Several cooperative institutes which are critical as you know uh have not received federal funding and in fact some the administration is calling for the complete elimination of CIS. So Noah's cooperative institutes produce more than half of the agency's lab research including validation of AI forecasting models.
▶ 1:07:45So what would the administration's proposal of eliminating CIS mean for the future of accurate weather forecasting innovation and who would be harmed if that research is no longer publicly available? In short, it would be devastating because it would remove the capability some of which could be taken over uh or is complemented by industry.
▶ 1:08:06But sometimes we delve into understand for the purpose of understanding that ultimately delivers the benefits of that understanding without an eye toward sort of closing a business case which is necessary right for uh private entities. Uh as far as who would be um harmed by that, the American people. Um and also some of these cuts we train the next generation. So the American people would be harmed for generations to come.
▶ 1:08:36We've already got people who've lost grants, who've had them pulled back that can't carry out the work that they successfully competed for that ultimately would benefit and I assure you that's a serious concern of many members of this committee and and again Dr. Abdelotti you talked about people and I know Dr. Dr.
▶ 1:08:53Nielsson Gam, you mentioned this as well, but if I I want to emphasize sat in this room and where you sit today, we had a whole discussion about the importance of social science uh and the social scientists their contribution especially in improving weather warning systems for clarity to reduce confusion.
▶ 1:09:13So if you could just comment on the importance of having uh that input as well as the hard science to have that social science and what it means in terms of I mean I represent a district on the Pacific Northwest and I know Dr. Gupta you you know this being from Washington state we have a Cascadius abduction zone we need good tsunami warnings and they need to be accurate and and timely and in conveyed in a way that's urgent. So so if you could just comment on the importance of that full range of of science.
▶ 1:09:41It's critical and I included that in my written testimony. Um, but ultimately the value of the work is fully realized when we understand how people absorb information, use it, react to it and act on it.
▶ 1:09:55So social science informs that and so it's critical and I will say uh that tends to be done in the universities at the cooperative institutes the federal agencies no one particular does not really have a budget to support social science except what's done through the cooperative institutes. I appreciate that. I'm also on the education committee and fighting against the attacks on higher education. So thank you. As I yield back I just want to emphasize we need to invest in Noah. Lives and livelihoods are at stake.
▶ 1:10:25there is too much at risk. Thank you again and I yield back. Thank you, Representative Bonamichi. I now recognize the chairman of the full committee, Dr. Babin, for his questions. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I appreciate it. I think it's important to note uh that the weather forecasting office that covers uh Kirk County was not fully staffed in advance of the July 4th flood there. But they also had a hydraologist on staff. Uh excuse me, let me back up.
▶ 1:10:50I I want I would like to say that the weather forecasting office that covers Kirk County was not only fully staffed in advance of the July 4th flood, but they also had a hydraologist on staff. Staffing was not an issue and forecasts were timely and accurate. It is also important to note that the president's budget request or PBR recommends an increase in the National Weather Service.
▶ 1:11:16Also, both House and Senate appropriators have subsequently considered funding bills that sufficiently fund Noah above the levels of the PBR. And now my question for you, Dr. Gammon. Uh, the flash floods in Texas Hill Country earlier this month caused the death of nearly 130 people and there are still folks missing.
▶ 1:11:40The level of devastation to human life has exposed a deficiency in the current system warning people that danger is imminent despite the facts that forecast were accurate notifications and warnings went out. What do you think can be done to prevent a tragedy like this from happening Thank you for the question.
▶ 1:11:59I unfortunately I don't think it's possible to totally prevent tragedies like this but we can certainly uh learn from them and improve um all aspects of of warning and distribution um including um more precise um forecasts and warnings with initial lead time. That's that's possible with motor technology. Uh improving the communication systems.
▶ 1:12:22We've we've heard about the lack of technology available in places without uh cell phone coverage in the area and making sure that u people the general public and people responsible for other people like camp operators and so forth understand the nature of the risks and how to specifically respond to them especially in the middle of the night when when you're not necessarily thinking clearly you already have plans in place to deal with them. Absolutely. All right. Thank you.
▶ 1:12:49In an interview, Rob Kelly, who is the Kerr County, Texas judge, county judge, and its most senior elected official said the county did not have a warning system because such systems are expensive and local residents are resistant to new spending. Taxpayers will not pay for it. Mr. Kelly, Judge Kelly said, asked if people might reconsider in light of the catastrophe.
▶ 1:13:12He said, "I don't know." Now, we know that forecasts and warnings went out well in advance of the floods and that notification systems and cell phones were alerted. Now, in this rural area, cell phone service is sparse. I live in a rural area myself and I can vouch for that. And the early morning hours of the event, as you just intimated, uh made receiving the alerts even more difficult. But I think everyone acknowledges that absolutely more should be done.
▶ 1:13:42This is a question of prioritization. We recently held a hearing on the Biden administration's Justice 40 initiative that required 40% of all federal expenditures be devoted to transform hundreds of federal programs by channeling resources toward communities that have faced quote longstanding environmental injustices and inequities.
▶ 1:14:07This resulted in significant taxpayer resources going to DEI and environmental justice initiatives rather than and protecting the lives and property of American citizens. The GAO recently warned Congress that America's fiscal health is at risk based on excessive spending, increased debt interest, and ballooning mandatory spending.
▶ 1:14:31Facing such fiscal challenges and in light of recent tragedies, I would submit that the government should shore up forecasting and notification systems rather than DEI and environmental justice initiatives. And with that, Mr. Chairman, I yield back the balance of my time. Thank you. Thank you, Chairman Babin. I now recognize the ranking member of the full committee, Miss Lofrren, for her questions.
▶ 1:14:54Well, thank you, uh, Chairman Franklin, and as I noted in my opening statement, I am an original co-sponsor of the bipartisan weather act reorganiz reauthorization of uh, 2025, and it has certainly been my hope that we can act quickly on it. The private sector is playing an increasingly significant role in weather forecasting.
▶ 1:15:15While Noah is the bedrock of weather data collection, analysis and provision, uh the private sector is developing new offerings that combine Noah's infrastructure products and services, weather data, incorporate advanced visualization techniques, and take advantage of machine learning. But challenges remain, including questions around data quality, continuity, open access, and cost effectiveness in the private sector.
▶ 1:15:44There's a growing need to ensure these partnerships support Noah's mission without compromising Noah's role as a trusted provider of free, reliable, and authoritative information. Noah as the federal partner is the key component of the partnership and it has the responsibility to gather the observations into forecasts, outlooks and projections of future conditions to make it readily accessible and to use all this information for the national uh benefit.
▶ 1:16:15I will say uh that uh the testimony uh has did cause me some concern uh the um question about the future of Noah's weather infrastructure that Mr. Kavitt described in his written uh testimony and his assertion that the weather act of 2025 would help create that future was confusing.
▶ 1:16:39In the testimony, it says Noah can maintain assets in space, but could primarily shift to a commercially owned, commercially operated model where the agency manages data flows and forecast outputs for the public good. This radical new approach would free up additional resources and that's actually I helped write the bill and that's not what the bill does. Um, I think we need to clarify this uh so that we're all on the same page.
▶ 1:17:09Uh, Mr. Cavitt did not cite a specific uh provision in the Weather Act uh to support uh that testimony, but let me just read the section uh that it runs contrary to the assertion.
▶ 1:17:26Uh first section um uh 10 uh 30 301 section 110 satellite architecture uh planning in general.
▶ 1:17:43The under secretary shall maintain a fleet of national oceanic and atmospheric administration space-based observation platforms that provide critical operations focused data and information to support the mission of the administration to monitor the global environment in order to protect lives and property from extreme weather and other natural phenomena.
▶ 1:18:08We uh section uh 302 talks about the uh program establishment the uh under secretary in coordination with the appropriate offices shall maintain a commercial data program and that's the pilot pro project that supports the private sector uh efforts today.
▶ 1:18:28Um it goes further to say however that the under secretary may not shall may acquire satellite groundbased airborne or marine-based insitu remote sensing and the like. So this is not a radical departure um from the current policy. Uh we do value um the fact that the private sector is playing an important role. We do not deny that.
▶ 1:18:53But it is not going to supplant uh Noah anytime in the in the near future. Uh the bottom line of this bill is to ensure that Noah has the capability to access buy and use commercially available data to augment its core observational capability which is fundamentally a core missionritical government uh function. We're reminded just last week of how critical the National Weather Services forecasts are.
▶ 1:19:23Relying on the private sector for that primary role is not an option. Now, I look forward to uh sitting down with my friend Congressman Lucas to make sure he and I are on the same page. I think we are, but I just thought it was important to use my time here instead of asking questions to make sure that the intent of the bill is not misunderstood. Um, and with that, Mr. Chairman, I yield Thank you, Ranking Member Lofer. And I now recognize my colleague from North Carolina, Miss Ross, for five minutes.
▶ 1:19:53Thank you, Chairman Franklin and Ranking Member Ammo, for holding this very important and timely hearing. And thank you to our witnesses for joining us today as we witnessed devastating floods in Texas, New Mexico, and my home state of North Carolina, displacing families, damaging infrastructure, and costing so many lives. We're reminded that weather forecasting isn't just science.
▶ 1:20:21It is Emerging technologies are transforming how we collect and interpret weather data and that is a good thing. From AI powered models and highresolution satellites to dronebased atmospheric sensing, we can now equip our outstanding forecasters at the National Weather Service with improved tools to predict weather patterns with increasing precision. And that's happening in the private sector as well.
▶ 1:20:51When these technologies are combined with data from traditional sources like weather balloons and radar systems, we gain a clearer, more comprehensive view of weather patterns than ever before. However, as we've heard, this progress is under threat. The Trump administration has proposed sweeping cuts to our nation's weather agencies, including the closure of all federally funded meteorology labs.
▶ 1:21:21Eliminating them means communities like those in Texas, New Mexico, and North Carolina, and of course, across the country will face the next disaster with less warning and fewer tools to respond. Consider the breakthrough by students at Stanford University, who developed a cutting edge AI forecasting model that rivals and in some cases surpasses existing systems.
▶ 1:21:49That model depends heavily on highquality long-term government weather data. Data that has now been discontinued due to budget cuts. Emerging technology technologies hold immense promise. But they can't function without funding.
▶ 1:22:07And if we do not have sustained investment in core data and scientific research, even the most innovative solutions will not produce the warnings that we need. Weather forecasting is simply not a luxury. It's a critical service that protects communities, informs farmers, supports transportation, and saves lives.
▶ 1:22:33We must fight in a bipartisan way to preserve and strengthen our weather agencies and not dismantle them. Artificial intelligence is reshaping the future of weather weather modeling, offering new opportunities to generate faster, more localized, and potentially more accurate forecasts. And thank you Dr. Gupta for sharing with us about this.
▶ 1:22:56These advances are being driven by improvements in computing, access to large-scale environmental data sets, innovation, and foundational models. As the technology evolves, it raises important questions about how Noah can harness its potential to improve public forecasting and resilience. Dr. Gupta and then Mr. Cavitt because AI based models rely on historical weather data to determine their output.
▶ 1:23:24Areas with limited previously recorded data and we heard a little bit about this with the Texas farms, right? Particularly in rural and low-income communities may be more challenging to detect. What are the significant challenges with data limitation? How can we best unlock innovation in weather predicting systems particularly given their potential impacts on emergency preparedness and public safety decisions in these areas where you cannot get the information. So Dr.
▶ 1:23:54Gupta first thank you for the question. I I would say this is not completely true at the moment with large scale machine learning models that can actually combine data from satellites, global scale data with highly localized data and generalized to locations which may not have the same sensors available. So these are the technologies that actually allow you to combine data from many different kinds of sensors that are not always easy to use with existing physical models.
▶ 1:24:25Like if you talk to people on the Noah side, people will tell you like even with respect to existing observations, they're probably not able to use vast majority of them in their current operational models. So from that perspective, AI is actually very interesting and transformative in terms of using even existing data much Thank you, Mr. Kavitt. Thank you. First, I'll say, you know, AI as an innovation uh it's it's opening many doors in this industry. It allows us to ingest more data.
▶ 1:24:55It reduces the computational costs of these models. Uh but it also requires training data and and for us to excuse me provide better data in these communities, we need higher resolution data uh in those areas in order to train the models to be effective. I would posit that one of the core ways we do that is from space. We need higher revisit observations from space similar to what the commercial industry is building in order to enable those models to really deliver the value that they can. Thank you and I yield back.
▶ 1:25:25Thank you, Representative Ross. I now recognize my colleague from Illinois, member of the full committee, Dr. Foster, for five minutes of questions. Uh thank you, Mr. Chair, and and to our witnesses. Um you know, first off, it goes without saying that our hearts go out to all the recent victims of the recent floods. You know, it's a um you know, back in 2021, a tornado ripped through Neapville, Illinois, the town I live in, and by a matter of just a couple of minutes, lives were saved because of the prompt warning.
▶ 1:25:53That was only possible because the close coordination between the local government, units of government, and the National Weather Service that that, you know, keeps an eye on things. And I was grateful actually last year to have an opportunity to uh achieve a childhood dream where I climbed up the weather the tower into the radar dome of of a National Weather Service facility at Lewis University airfield. Um and see what's actually inside that which is for those of you who have never been inside those little spherical domes on the top of a tower.
▶ 1:26:23There's a parabolic uh antenna that's spinning around and down below they have a cystron in a building and talk to the guy that maintained the cystron. These are, you know, these are great facilities and, you know, they're most of the time not used and then they save lives from time to time. So, it's just it's incredible. Now, I'm also, I guess, one of Congress's few actual AI programmers. So, I've just been fascinated by the the progress that's made made. And so, Dr.
▶ 1:26:50Gupta, you know, there there's two different approaches that have been very effective in this. The first one is just say, give me all of the data, all the sensors we have out there, and predict tomorrow's sensors. And you can do that with almost understanding no physics, no chemist, atmospheric chemistry or anything. Um or you can go to a hybrid approach where you use the what's known um about the physics of little a little blob of air the way they they used to solve them on supercomputers.
▶ 1:27:15And it seems like if you look at things like protein folding, the best approaches is to do a hybrid of both where you have AI supervising it or are you an AI purist where you just say forget about the physics, you know?
▶ 1:27:28Um I would say this is this is the thing with like respect to sca like the scaling laws in artificial intelligence even in the protein folding domain if you look at the new research that has come up the share of like physics goes down and share of data and the modeling goes up so in general this is true I would say even in the weather modeling space we don't I mean there is definitely role and opportunity to use these models themselves to understand the physics perspective.
▶ 1:27:58There's a lot of interpret interpretability research that needs to be done to understand what these models are able to learn from data that we don't fully understand from a physics perspective that's happening with respect to language and other domains as well.
▶ 1:28:11Now, one of these the things that this um committee has oversight over is the split in effort between state-of-the-art AI machines which are going to to smaller and smaller data widths, you know, as small as single bit data paths but certainly less than 8 bit data paths which is contrary to what we've traditionally been doing you know 32 probably 64-bit floating point and the question is should our investment be shifting down to these narrower data path architectures for weather applications or Will there be
▶ 1:28:41always a use for the high precision uh part of it? I think the high precision stuff comes from like the physics approaches because you can't solve those equations unless and if you lose position because you kind of uh lead to catastrophic errors. AI machine learning approaches the current ones actually I mean higher position is good for them as well but it's just like much cheaper Yeah, it's it's a waste.
▶ 1:29:09And so the trend in in pure AI for commercial applications is toward the low width data pads. The question is are we going to get two branches of supercomputing one of which the the high precision one may have to remain federally supported because it won't survive commercially. Do you have any when when you said that the trend is more toward use AI and not use mathematics and physics? Is that something that we should we should anticipate should be reflected in government um supercomputer investment? I would say this is true.
▶ 1:29:37This is not like you do not even I have to accept like my point of view but even the previous chairman of ECMWF the European agencies Peter Bower does agree with the fact that operationally the AI methods are likely going to continue to improve and are the future of how operationally these systems are going to work. But physics still has a role. We need to understand how these things behave. What other observations do we need? How do we actually improve our understanding?
▶ 1:30:07So these things are likely going to remain in parallel for a long time but operationally like what we actually need is provided by the AI models already. Yeah. Well, it's a brave new world. You know, everything you're you're so proud of of understanding the physics turns out to be irrelevant. You just throw into machine learning and get a better answer. So um well I'm out of time here but really appreciate this discussion. Thank you, Dr. Foster.
▶ 1:30:34And I'm not sure what else may be on your bucket list, but if flying into an eyewall is uh is on there. I'd love to have you down to our district to ride out with a hurricane hunter sometime. Oh, okay. I'll ask my wife about that. So, I spent an entire career in the Navy trying to avoid storms when I was flying, but they they go charging right into it, which I admire. Oh, yeah. I'll pilot a drone into it. I There we go. Let's see. All right.
▶ 1:30:57So, um, I know we have with the rescheduling this one, we have a conflict of several hearings and things going on on the floor at the same time. I know there are members from both sides who are trying to get here drastically quickly.
▶ 1:31:32All right. Okay. I'd like to recognize my colleague from Virginia now for five minutes of questions. Uh thank you, Mr. Chair, and thank you to the witnesses for being here today. I I um I have uh um I've I've caught some of the testimony so far. or I've been another hearing as well.
▶ 1:31:52But I I think this is a really important issue because uh being prepared, being ready and um being able to um anticipate uh weather events is increasingly important. And uh I actually got into politics because of this. I was in New Orleans when Hurricane Katrina hit the city and I didn't care about politics before that. And then I started caring about it because of the response to Katrina. So that's sort of why I'm here today. That's put me on this path.
▶ 1:32:22And so I I take a special interest in this uh particular topic. And um I I guess one of my concerns is that I um had a had a town hall the other night and uh a gentleman uh um he'd worked at at Noah for many years. He'd worked on weather satellites for 20 years. He's he's one of their top expert engineers. And due to budget cuts at Noah, his contract is ending on September 30th.
▶ 1:32:50And uh this is really important capabilities that he was working on. And his wife was a civil servant for 34 years and she was working on the GOXO program. Uh but then she decided to take early retirement. Um but her work was so critical that they begged her to come back and and she agreed to come back the next day. But um you know what I'm concerned about is is the expertise that we're losing uh when it comes to weather forecasting and and weather events in the federal government.
▶ 1:33:20And I'd love to hear um from uh you know I guess anyone um but um um you know what what are we going to what are these cuts going to do to impact our ability long term as a country when it comes to these weather events? if anyone would like to answer that. Uh I'll make a couple comments. Uh the impact is going to be long-term um um we're losing talent.
▶ 1:33:50The talent that the talent that remains um is nervous. The good ones have other opportun the best ones have other opportunities. Um and so there's a there's going to be a brain drain. um but there's also going to be a lack of a brain infusion from the other end because the educational opportunities um diminish in the face of this.
▶ 1:34:14So I think um the unfortunate thing is from my perspective uh I fully support the idea of of taking advantage of capabilities in artificial intelligence the commercial sector um and I do think that the role of Noah in the area of weather prediction um should and is evolving but uh the goal it seemed in this case was simply to reduce the numbers as
▶ 1:34:44opposed to develop a more efficient capability. Uh and so when the goal is to reduce the numbers, I think the pursuit was clumsy and has great consequences. Um and it's unfortunate because if uh carefully and thoughtfully done I think the best of both you know the the government capabilities uh well not both the government capabilities the university capabilities industry capabilities could be brought forward
▶ 1:35:14to be optimized but the result is uh significant gap in capability that will last a long time. I think that's right. And there was 1500 no employees who were fired or resigned. Um 560 have left the National Weather Service. Uh and in our National Weather Service office in Sterling, Virginia, it's uh the the vacancy rate has has doubled now. And and there's even more cuts planned. 27% cut of Noah funding and 17% cut of workforce.
▶ 1:35:43And uh a lot of this is the critical technology and modeling and data collection that we need to do really good weather forecasting. And uh for the American people who might be watching uh you know first of all thank you for watching a science and technology hearing on a Wednesday. But second of all uh just know that this impacts you right now.
▶ 1:36:05uh and we just saw it in in Texas and uh you know, yes, we we got money out to Texas for uh storm infrastructure planning and under the American Rescue Plan, but that $10 million was diverted in a way that was not very helpful. And then these cuts meant that people who were calling in uh couldn't get a hold of anyone um when they were affected u by the flood.
▶ 1:36:29And uh and then long term, I'm I'm worried about our ability to even anticipate these types of of disasters. And so we are making every single American vulnerable by cutting these critical people at Noah and at the National Weather Service. And it's going to hurt every single American. And I think the word brain the phrase brain drain is the right thing to to think about. This is going to brain drain for our expertise in the federal government when it comes uh to weather forecasting.
▶ 1:36:59So, I appreciate the hearing and and thank you for our witnesses. Thank you, Mr. Submanium. I now recognize my colleague from Florida, Mr. Herodopoulos, for five minutes. Well, thank you, Mr. Mr. Chairman, I this is a very thoughtful meeting and I'm glad we're having this opportunity to have a a positive discussion and I appreciate you bringing the folks before us and but let's also take a look at this with this tragedy in Texas and understand where we are on the factual side of this and and as I think everyone in this room knows and people watching as just mentioned on C-SPAN is that the National Weather Service
▶ 1:37:29did provide timely and accurate forecast. uh their challenge. I think we all recognize it happened between 12:00 and 4:00 in the morning and it's a tragedy what happened and this is where we kind of we move forward to solve problems not to play politics with it. These are lies we're talking about, not political gambits. And uh there was no lack of staff as we've all looked at in that whether it be the Austin San Antonio offices or the San uh Angelo office. And there has been authorized the situation where to hire 126 staffers before this happened.
▶ 1:37:59And so again, I I I get frustrated as my new member of Congress that everything has to be political and and I think that we need to focus on is solving problems. But in the case here, it was done by the book. They had the right personnel there. They put the warnings out and it happened unfortunately at a very untimely hour. And of course we also have to mention it was 36 feet high. I mean this is a huge uh thing that happened I think in less than 45 minutes.
▶ 1:38:28And so I I this is why what we should take from this is what better preparation can we have especially as we think about nighttime events like this um as we move forward. And so I'm glad to see our chairman and being from Florida, we recognize not only floods, but of course we face hurricane threats. But that's something we can prepare for. As we know, we know because of the excellent work by um the National Weather Service, Noah and others, we can better uh anticipate the storm and thus we can be prepared.
▶ 1:38:57Of course, this was a middle of the night event uh like ne never before. And and to see the absolute destruction in less than 45 minutes is is a true tragedy. And that's why we were all on the floor yesterday to recognize the her the heroic acts of so many people who literally not only put their lives on the line but lost their life trying to save others. And that's the thing that we should be focusing on. And and as I mentioned before, we've already talked about restaffing some of these folks before this happened to make sure that the numbers are right.
▶ 1:39:25And and this is what I think solutions are about as opposed to playing politics. And so, uh, a lot of these narratives, um, have proven to be false, but everybody's always in a rush to play politics. As we saw, immediately after this tragedy, people are pointing fingers, and that's not how we solve problems in Washington DC. I'm glad to see that uh, hopefully we have meetings like this, and we look at our budget and do it right. And the other thing I think I want to make clear to everyone um, before us is that a lot of these cuts are proposed cuts.
▶ 1:39:54And the way you stop proposed cuts is you do what you do today. you advocate for programs you believe in. I've been in a situation where I happen to be the chairman of the the subcommittee for space and there's a lot of discussion about space adjustments that the the sky is falling there's x cut or that cut and what has happened in the big beautiful bill we added $10 billion to the space program to help make sure that not only are three but four and five are now funded and we have made ourselves space dominant because we put those dollars
▶ 1:40:24in place recognizing the situation we're in and now between now and roughly October 1 when we get our budget moving forward. We're going to be looking at these very programs and make sure you put the right people and the new technologies that are emerging. We have some of those new technologies actually in the state of Florida to make up for some of these gaps that we have in weather uh uh activities. And I think we can also use that across the country. And so, Mr. Chairman, as as I serve on this committee, of course, our chairman is here for the full committee.
▶ 1:40:52I think this is an opportunity for us to explore how to best utilize the most modern technology and and move forward in a positive way. And clearly this administration as they've inherited a very unique situation from the prior one uh can look at where we're at and go out to solve problems with the latest technology and make best use of those 126 people that they talked about before this incident took place in the state of Texas.
▶ 1:41:16So hopefully it never happens again and we'll of course with the with the good work of the leadership especially from our members from Texas I think they'll come up with some creative solutions so that when those literally the middle of the night situations take place we might have a more accurate and effective system to help those people who are truly in need. And uh my focus right now is is is really uh applauding those people who are going out there every single day to try to bring some closure to some families. And and I love what you have done, Mr. Mr.
▶ 1:41:44Chairman, and focusing on on solutions as opposed to pointing fingers. And so with that, I I want to ask any questions because I know we're running out of time, but I'm glad we're focusing on solutions instead of politics. That's what this institution should be all about. And with that, I yield back. Thank you, Mr. Heropoulos. That certainly was the purpose of the hearing. Uh, and I now yield five minutes to my colleague from Maryland, Miss McClan Delaney. Uh, thank you to the chair and ranking member, and thanks to our witnesses for being here.
▶ 1:42:13Um, I wholeheartedly agree with my colleague that we need to work in a bipartisan way to have solutions on weather prediction and meteorologists. I do not believe in fingerpointing, but I do believe in using data.
▶ 1:42:31And I do believe that we do need to solve problems with our latest technology and best resources, but we also need to make sure that we before we start to defund and break things that we are staffed up and are able to really understand the impact of some of the freezes and different things that we are dealing with. Um, in particular, I represent the sixth district of Maryland.
▶ 1:42:55um and communities across the country, including my native state of Idaho, but my own constituents in Alagany and Garrett counties, experienced devastating floods two months ago. Effective weather forecasting and emergency response teams saved hundreds of students and staff from Westernport Elementary in May. Sadly, in Texas, that did not happen. Heartbreakingly so, but they actually credit the Emergency Weather Service for saving those children.
▶ 1:43:24They were about to let them go at dismissal time and they kept them in the building. The Wthers rose from the first floor to the second floor to the third floor, but they were rescued by boat and there was not one injury. And it was because of the prediction services that happened.
▶ 1:43:41As we've heard today, partnership lies at the heart of our nation's ability to predict and respond or partnership, not partnership, relies at the uh heart of the ability to respond to severe weather emergencies and collaboration between academia and governments and private industry is very important for forecasting data.
▶ 1:43:58Uh I was uh privileged to work in the Biden administration at NTIA, but I actually visited Noah's um headquarters and uh also their Boulder, Colorado facility, and I was never more impressed by many of the meteorologists there and what they were able to do. So, um I'm going to ask just a couple of things. I I know that we have highlighted the importance of Noah's Cooperative Institute CIS and how they're the backbone of the National Weather Service.
▶ 1:44:26um just ask our our panelists these institutes represent 50% of Noah's research workforce and as we heard the FY26 budget would zero that out how I know you've talked a little bit about it but how would the weather services weather uh service ability to provide open free data be impacted um if they are closed and um if is is there anything we can do to mitigate this um against this landscape
▶ 1:45:00So the the open and free data access is really a bedrock of getting the most out of the investments uh thus far. cooperative institutes. I'm a director of one, the largest one, um play a key role in that, but ultimately it comes down to the government policies uh that that either dictate or enable um the production of and release of that data for public and making it publicly available.
▶ 1:45:30What I will say though is it is employees at the cooperative institutes in partnership with our federal colleagues that do the work that make it so. you know, developing higher level products that people can access. Um, and I I can't stress enough, it is a partnership with federal employees that ultimately draws the best from both the federal side and the university side uh to put forward this data and this information um for the benefit of
▶ 1:46:01uh certainly the American people um people in our state, people all over the world. ultimately the the data have value that are most fully realized when it's most accessible and we play a key role in I think that's great. You know what I am going to I think that was a perfect answer. I am going to ask one more uh before I run out of time. A number of our institutions like the uh University of Maryland Center for Environmental Studies are CI consortium members um training the next generation of client science scientists.
▶ 1:46:31um how will our ability to predict and respond to emergency be impacted if these CIS close and how do we see our workforce for the next 10 years? Sure. The CIS are really feed into the federal workforce develop the talent that the commercial entities ultimately draw from.
▶ 1:46:47Um, we're experiencing that directly right now in Boulder where a a very successful enterprise that was undertaken by the federal side and the university side um is being taken over by a commercial entity. Uh so that development of capability is huge for precipitating commercial activities but the biggest contribution is in the talent pipeline.
▶ 1:47:13Uh the federal employees usually start out at cooperative institutes as kind of an audition period. Um but uh looking far into the future, it's the talent we train in this domain that ultimately supports the broader enterprise. Thank you. Congresswoman, may I respond to the uh previous question briefly? So I just want to say that totally agree from from a scientific uh research standpoint and and an operational standpoint.
▶ 1:47:43Um you know providing that data and a free and open basis making sure that the American public receives the forecast as a as a public good is is critical. I will say that on the commercial side things have evolved a little bit in the sense that you know while that operational forecast free and open we totally agree the raw data coming out of our satellites for example has become an important commodity of our industry and we're able to raise you know significant private capital take on significant risk and really invest in these systems because we have a dual use we can sell
▶ 1:48:13to governments we can sell to the commercial sector and so really empowering Noah to be able to negotiate and create those licensing agreements to protect that upstream data is critical to make sure that the commercial industry can continue to innovate like Thank you. Excellent point. I yield And thank you, Miss McLean. Delaney. Um and with that, I thank the witnesses for their valuable testimony and the members today for their questions. The record will remain open for 10 days for additional comments and written questions from members. With that, this hearing is a journ.