Enumeration or Estimation: Why Inaccurate Census Results Hurt American Citizens

Immigration Enforcement and Sanctuary PoliciesHouse Judiciary Subcommittee on Constitution and Limited Government · 2025-11-19 · 119th Congress
The House Judiciary Subcommittee on Constitution and Limited Government convened this hearing to examine the accuracy of the 2020 census, including the Census Bureau's use of a new "differential privacy" statistical-disclosure method, claims of undercounts and overcounts across states, and whether non-citizens should be counted for congressional apportionment. Begins at 0:17:59
Transcript
Highlights

Title

Hearing on 2020 census accuracy, differential privacy, and citizenship counting

Purpose

The House Judiciary Subcommittee on Constitution and Limited Government convened this hearing to examine the accuracy of the 2020 census, including the Census Bureau's use of a new "differential privacy" statistical-disclosure method, claims of undercounts and overcounts across states, and whether non-citizens should be counted for congressional apportionment. Four witnesses — an attorney formerly at the Census Bureau, a state attorney general's office litigator, a policy advisor, and a civil-rights organization leader — testified on the constitutional "actual enumeration" requirement and competing views on citizenship questions and privacy methodology. Begins at0:17:59.

Who spoke

Chairman Chip Roy (R-TX)0:17:59: Opened by calling the 2020 count the "sanctuary census," arguing counting illegal aliens in apportionment gives Democratic-leaning states 10–12 extra House seats0:20:34 and that Bureau errors cost Republicans six more seats, an alleged combined 18-seat effect0:22:250:23:25.

Ranking Member Mary Gay Scanlon (D-PA)0:24:27: Countered that the Constitution requires counting the "whole number of persons," not just citizens0:28:37, and said 40% of immigrants are citizens and 26% legal permanent residents, contradicting "illegal alien" framing0:27:38.

Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), Judiciary Committee ranking member0:34:11: Called Trump's "rigged census" claim "lunacy," citing a 2024 GAO report finding 2020 accuracy consistent with prior censuses while noting chronic undercounts of communities of color0:35:280:36:05; later questioned Yang and Mayfield on differential privacy's actual scope1:08:451:11:20.

Trey Mayfield, former counsel to the Census Bureau director0:43:02: Testified differential privacy alters sub-state data, citing a test where Port Royal, VA's population was artificially inflated 87% while Stony Creek, VA's was cut 43%0:46:46; said the 2020 collection itself was "exemplary" with a 99.98% household contact rate1:06:56.

Jay Rodriguez, Kansas Assistant Attorney General0:48:25: Argued illegal aliens are not constitutional "inhabitants" and should be excluded from apportionment0:49:24; said Supreme Court precedent has not resolved whether counting them is required or prohibited0:52:07.

Joseph "Wade" Miller, Center for Renewing America0:52:48: Called differential privacy an algorithm that "deliberately injects... false data," citing Harvard research and estimates of 2–20% population movement0:53:590:54:59; said undercounts hit six mostly red states and overcounts eight mostly blue states0:55:12.

John Yang, Asian Americans Advancing Justice0:56:45: Said the Constitution requires counting all persons, not just citizens0:58:08, and that differential privacy is not applied at the state level so does not affect apportionment0:59:571:11:38; noted specific undercounts of children (5%), Hispanics (5%), Black Americans (3%) and Native Americans (5%)0:59:29.

A Republican member from North Carolina1:01:59: Questioned Miller on whether a citizenship question is constitutionally mandated1:02:24 and pressed Mayfield on how 2020 errors undermined representation1:06:29.

A Republican member from California1:16:11: Asked Rodriguez whether the 14th Amendment's "subject to the jurisdiction" language has been applied to children of illegal immigrants by the Supreme Court1:16:42, and pressed Mayfield on how "guesswork" post-enumeration surveys could shift apportionment1:19:48.

Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA)1:22:03: Asked Yang how adding a citizenship question would worsen undercounts, noting Hispanic undercounts tied to citizenship-question fears even after the Supreme Court barred the question1:23:41; explored differential privacy's privacy rationale1:26:26.

A Republican member from Missouri1:28:09: Argued sanctuary-state policies dilute Missouri's political power1:28:39 and, with Miller, cited that five of six undercounted states were red and seven of eight overcounted were blue1:30:52.

An unnamed Democratic member1:33:31: Cited a ProPublica investigation finding over 170 U.S. citizens detained by immigration agents1:34:41 and detailed the cases of citizens George Rees and Jason Gvidia, both held despite showing ID1:36:231:36:48.

Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH)1:39:36: Noted the citizenship question was asked from 1820–1950 and 1970–20001:39:45; pressed Yang on whether asking it threatens democracy, eliciting the reply "as currently constituted, it could be"1:43:291:43:38.

A Democratic member from California1:44:02: Asked Yang about the census's role in resource allocation, using a Fairfax County Costco example1:44:55, prompting an objection and request to strike remarks alleging Republicans wanted to remove "every single foreign-born person"1:46:101:47:24.

Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-WY)1:52:48: Cited that most countries including Canada, Australia and Germany ask a citizenship question1:54:20; had Mayfield detail that differential privacy could swing a block with three actual Hispanic residents to a modeled range of zero to six, a "100% difference"1:56:08.

Ranking Member "Miss Campbell"2:00:19: Asked Yang about privacy concerns amid DOGE's access to federal data2:02:57 and pressed on whether undercounts reflected political motivation, which Yang said was not the case2:05:47.

Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-WI)2:06:54: Argued the Three-Fifths Clause was meant to limit slave states' power, not devalue Black Americans, criticizing Yang's framing2:07:18; disputed with Raskin over the clause's history2:13:032:13:27.

A Republican member from Texas2:21:52: Alleged 2020 census errors benefited Democratic states by 18 total seats combining miscounts and non-citizen counting2:23:202:23:48; asked witnesses whether illegal immigrants should be allowed to vote, eliciting objections from all four2:24:19.

Key moments

Chairman Roy claimed apportioning by citizens only would shift 10–12 House seats to Republican states, and that 2020 counting errors cost Republicans six more, for an alleged 18-seat total effect0:20:340:22:25.

Raskin cited a 2024 GAO report finding the 2020 national count's accuracy was consistent with previous censuses while flagging persistent undercounts of Black, Hispanic, young, and renter populations0:35:280:36:05.

Mayfield testified that a test of differential privacy on 2010 data inflated Port Royal, Virginia's population by 87% while cutting Stony Creek, Virginia's by 43%0:46:46.

Yang repeatedly stated differential privacy is not applied at the state level and therefore does not affect congressional apportionment, only sub-state redistricting data0:59:571:11:38.

Jordan asked Yang directly whether a citizenship question threatens democracy; Yang answered "as currently constituted, it could be," which Jordan called "amazing"1:43:291:43:38.

A California Democratic member's Costco-rice analogy about demographic data drew a Republican objection alleging she'd accused colleagues of wanting to remove "every foreign-born person," triggering a formal request to strike the words1:46:101:47:24.

Hageman had Mayfield confirm that on a block with three actual Hispanic residents, differential privacy modeling could produce results ranging from zero to six — a full 100% variance1:56:08.

The unnamed Democratic member cited a ProPublica investigation reporting over 170 U.S. citizens detained by immigration agents, including Army veteran George Rees, held three days despite showing ID1:34:411:36:23.

Grothman and Raskin sparred over the historical purpose of the Constitution's Three-Fifths Clause, with Raskin calling Grothman's framing "historically obtuse and morally disoriented"2:07:182:13:03.

Miller and a Missouri member noted that of states affected by 2020 count errors, five of six undercounted states were red and seven of eight overcounted were blue or swing states1:30:52.

Metadata

CommitteeHouse Judiciary Subcommittee on Constitution and Limited Government
Chamber / CongressHouse · 119th Congress
Date2025-11-19
TypeHearing
Witnesses
Mr. John Yang — President and Executive Director, Asian Americans Advancing Justice
Mr. Jay Rodriguez — Assistant Attorney General, Office of the Kansas Attorney General
Mr. Trey Mayfield — Member, Chalmers, Adams, Becker, & Kaufman, LLC
Mr. Joseph Miller — Senior Advisor, Center for Renewing America
Videoyoutube
Transcript450 caption blocks · 21,927 words · 2:27:04 runtime
EventCongress.gov 118665