Flashpoint: A Path Toward Stability in the Western Balkans

Defense Posture and Global ThreatsHouse Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe · December 2, 2025 · 119th Congress
The House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe held this hearing to examine sources of instability in the Western Balkans — including the stalled Serbia-Kosovo dialogue, Bosnia's fragile Dayton-era political structure, and Russian and Chinese influence in the region — and to consider how the Trump administration should engage the region going forward. Begins at ▶ 0:14:04
Transcript
Highlights

Title

Western Balkans instability, Serbia-Kosovo tensions, and US policy options

Purpose

The House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe held this hearing to examine sources of instability in the Western Balkans — including the stalled Serbia-Kosovo dialogue, Bosnia's fragile Dayton-era political structure, and Russian and Chinese influence in the region — and to consider how the Trump administration should engage the region going forward. Three outside experts (Edward Joseph of Johns Hopkins SAIS, Max Primorac of the Heritage Foundation, and Luke Coffey of the Hudson Institute) testified and took questions from members on sanctions policy, Bosnia's Office of the High Representative, and reported Chinese and Russian activity in Serbia. Begins at▶ 0:14:04

Who spoke

• Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)▶ 0:14:04: Opened by describing the Western Balkans as Europe's most unstable region outside Ukraine▶ 0:14:29, detailed Kosovo's stalled government formation and December 28 snap election▶ 0:15:23, Bosnia's high representative's expanding "bond powers"▶ 0:15:48, and Albania's judicial backlog growing from ~16,000 to ~200,000 cases▶ 0:16:31; later ran a lightning round on Serbian sanctions and minority treatment▶ 1:24:36 and announced plans to introduce a bill on Serbia's treatment of ethnic Albanians▶ 1:27:05.

• Ranking Member Bill Keating (D-MA)▶ 0:21:43: Defended the Dayton Accords and the Office of the High Representative▶ 0:22:12, cited his bipartisan Western Balkans Democracy and Prosperity Act▶ 0:22:31, criticized the administration's removal of sanctions on Milorad Dodik▶ 0:22:58, and condemned the Kushner-linked Belgrade hotel project▶ 0:24:50; later pressed witnesses on the purpose of sanctions and named Rudy Giuliani, Rod Blagojevich, and Laura Loomer in connection with lobbying to lift Dodik's sanctions▶ 1:29:15.

• Max Primorac, Heritage Foundation▶ 0:28:35: Called Bosnia a "failed state" after 30 years and billions in US aid▶ 0:28:35, urged dissolving the Office of the High Representative▶ 0:29:04, argued the State Department pursues a "centralized Muslim dominant state" that discriminates against Croats▶ 0:29:50, and promoted a Trump-style investment-based "grand bargain" using US energy exports▶ 0:31:11.

• Luke Coffey, Hudson Institute▶ 0:33:35: Argued Europe's economic weight (46 of 50 US states export more to Europe than China) makes regional stability a US interest▶ 0:34:05, said Serbia "remains firmly in Russia's orbit"▶ 0:35:21, criticized the October removal of Dodik's sanctions as "unanchored to any broader US strategy"▶ 0:36:19, and defended Dayton as one of the "greatest diplomatic achievements" of the postwar era▶ 0:37:28.

• Edward Joseph, Johns Hopkins SAIS▶ 0:38:51: Said Serbia's "revisionist" alignment with Russia and China is the core obstacle to regional stability▶ 0:39:19, recommended nationalizing Serbia's Russian-owned oil company NIS and closing RT/Sputnik outlets in Serbia▶ 0:42:33, confirmed Serbia does not recognize Kosovo's right to exist▶ 0:47:30, and called NATO membership, not the EU dialogue, the real solution for Kosovo-Serbia normalization▶ 0:56:39.

• Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH)▶ 0:57:20: Invoked JD Vance's Munich speech on European free-speech crackdowns▶ 0:58:16, criticized the Senate Armed Services Committee for blocking Trump's nominees in response to a paused Romania troop rotation▶ 0:59:39, and defended the administration's Ukraine peace-deal approach▶ 1:02:20.

• Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV)▶ 1:03:08: Summarized Serbia's stalled EU candidacy since 2012▶ 1:03:08, noted President Vučić's "multi-vector" foreign policy balancing the US, EU, China and Russia▶ 1:03:51, and pressed Coffey on whether the US-Serbia strategic dialogue emboldens Belgrade▶ 1:04:20.

• Rep. Young Kim (R-CA)▶ 1:08:21: Asked how figures like Dodik, the Orthodox Church, and Russian-linked paramilitaries obstruct NATO/EU integration▶ 1:08:48, and how Chinese investment (over €30 billion in the Western Balkans, concentrated in Serbia) creates debt dependency▶ 1:10:49.

• Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA)▶ 1:13:52: Asked witnesses whether lifting sanctions undermines US leverage▶ 1:14:16 and whether the US and NATO can work more comprehensively to bring regional factions together▶ 1:15:05.

• Rep. Sarah McBride (D-DE)▶ 1:19:02: Criticized the administration's broader foreign-policy coherence, citing tariffs on allies alongside sanctions relief for Dodik▶ 1:19:33, and asked Coffey and Joseph how the sanctions removal — reportedly following lobbying by Trump allies — undermines US national security interests▶ 1:20:27.

Key moments

• Chair Self said Kosovo's failure to form a government after its February 2025 election has forced a new snap election on December 28▶ 0:15:23.

• Keating disclosed he and ranking member Meeks sent a letter to Secretary Rubio objecting to the administration's removal of all sanctions on Milorad Dodik and his family/affiliates▶ 0:22:58.

• Keating and Joseph both criticized Serbian parliament's approval of a Jared Kushner-linked hotel development on former Serbian defense ministry land, with Joseph noting the site sits directly across from Serbia's main government building and faces broad opposition▶ 0:24:50▶ 1:06:52.

• Coffey said the sanctions on Dodik, imposed for "obstructing the Dayton Accords" during the first Trump term, lasted through Biden's presidency before being unexpectedly lifted last October with no stated rationale or clear US benefit▶ 0:36:19.

• Joseph confirmed under direct questioning that Serbia does not recognize Kosovo's right to exist as a sovereign state, nor the 2010 ICJ opinion on its independence▶ 0:47:30.

• Keating pressed Coffey and Joseph on names tied to lobbying for Dodik's sanctions removal — Rudy Giuliani, Rod Blagojevich, and Laura Loomer — with Coffey confirming Giuliani's and Blagojevich's involvement▶ 1:29:15▶ 1:29:37.

• Primorac and Coffey disagreed with Keating and Joseph over Dayton: Primorac called for dissolving the Office of the High Representative and creating a third, Croat-majority entity▶ 0:29:04, while Coffey argued unwinding Dayton now would be "too much of a risky business" amid the Ukraine war▶ 0:54:12.

• Kim cited over €30 billion in Chinese investment across the Western Balkans, concentrated in Serbia, financing highways and 5G networks on opaque, high-interest terms▶ 1:10:49; Primorac linked this to the fatal 2024 Novi Sad train station collapse, attributing it to Chinese-built infrastructure with weak safety standards▶ 1:11:50.

• Davidson linked the Pentagon's pause of a rotational brigade to Romania with Senate Armed Services Committee retaliation against Trump's nominees, arguing both reflect friction over policy toward Europe▶ 0:59:39; Coffey noted the Romania and Dodik announcements came the same day▶ 1:21:06.

• Titus noted Serbia sent military personnel to train in China and hosted President Xi for a state visit despite pursuing EU candidacy, while the administration's Serbia dialogue has focused on business and energy rather than anti-corruption or rule-of-law reform [0:23:51... 1:03:51].

Metadata

CommitteeHouse Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe
Chamber / CongressHouse · 119th Congress
DateDecember 2, 2025
TypeHearing
Witnesses
Mr. Edward Joseph — Lecturer & Senior Fellow, Merrill Center for Strategic Studies, Foreign Policy Institute, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Mr. Max Primorac — Senior Research Fellow, Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom, Heritage Foundation
Mr. Luke Coffey — Senior Fellow, Center on Europe and Eurasia, Hudson Institute
Videoyoutube
Transcript250 caption blocks · 12,530 words · 1:37:43 runtime
EventCongress.gov 118682