▶ 0:36:47Chair Risch: Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. The senate for a -- foreign relations subcommittee on near east, south asia, central asia, and counterterrorism will come to order.
▶ 0:37:01Chair Risch: This is our first subcommittee hearing of the 119 congress and I'm so grateful to you, senator rosen, committee chair risch, ranking member shaheen, for working together with us to convene this hearing with such distant was to guess at such an important moment in the history of the middle east. Before we begin, a bit of housekeeping. For those of you in the audience, we are so glad to have you, you are very welcome. This is a public hearing and we appreciate your attendance but participation is not allowed.
▶ 0:37:33Chair Risch: Any interruption, as a tradition of the senate for a, any disruption of the proceedings or the witnesses in anyway will result in your immediate removal and charged annually banned from the committee for a year. Thank you for respecting that rule. Now onto the business of the day. It's been 655 days since hamas' learners and barbaric attacks on israel that changed the middle east and irreversible ways.
▶ 0:38:03Chair Risch: Wendy and I visited israel in the weeks after october 7, hamas' intent to ignite iran's ring of fire, determined to destroy israel and destabilize the region, those goals were very clear. Instead, those that of the attack set in motion a chain of events culminating in a strategic blow to hamas' patron, the islamic republic of iran and at least seismic shifts in the geopolitical landscape unseen in recent memory which provide an enormous opportunity.
▶ 0:38:35Chair Risch: Israel's brilliant campaign against hezbollah in august and september neutralize their senior leadership and destroyed its terror infrastructure, weapons depots, including over 100 antiaircraft batteries and tens of thousands of missiles and rockets that were aimed at israeli civilians. In december 2024, iran and russia longtime crony in syria bashar al-assad abandon the country and the regime collapsed like a house of cards.
▶ 0:39:03Chair Risch: These events combined with israel successful air campaigns against iran's air defense systems in the fall and the spring of 2024 set the stage for one of the most dramatic events to date, operation rising lion, operation midnight hammer.
▶ 0:39:19Chair Risch: In operation rising lion, israel preemptively struck dozens of targets across iran, neutralizing their military command control states, ballistic missile production, launch and storage sites, as well as targeted assassinations of top political nuclear and military officials.
▶ 0:39:37Chair Risch: And this conduct was an unparalleled success, with israel destroying over 40 years of iranian military buildup and set the stage for a midnight operation hammer, where president trump executed a devastating blow, led by brave american war fighters against three of iran's key nuclear facilities. The strike secured regional safety, upheld a nonproliferation regime, and reshaped the regional balance of power.
▶ 0:40:06Chair Risch: Soleimani's so-called ring of fire, proxy groups in lebanon, yemen, iraq, syria, gaza, and iran designed to pressure israel and the united states turned out to be little more than a flicker of a match. Far from retreating from the region, the success of midnight hammer is a case study for how a capable U.S. ally can defend itself in tandem with the credible deterrent from the united states.
▶ 0:40:32Chair Risch: The strategic implications of this should not be lost on us our adversaries who continue to wage wars of aggression on ukraine or seek to sow instability in the indo pacific. Today, because of U.S. and israel joint operation during a 12-day war, iran has suffered an historic and humiliating strategic and tactical defeat.
▶ 0:40:53Chair Risch: The machine is at its weakest point politically and militarily since the revolution of 1979, and israel is in the strongest position since its sweeping victory in the six-day war. Despite our successes, we know, however, this fight is not over. Last week, who the allies and yum instructed to commercial ships traveling in the red sea. Proxy militias in iraq remain a threat and are suspected to be disrupting oil production in kurdistan.
▶ 0:41:22Chair Risch: Instability rains in syria as the newest the newe regime is unable to predict groups. Just this weekend, members were gunned down in the street. I agree with my envoy. We will have to adapt quickly if he expects U.S. support.
▶ 0:41:46Chair Risch: While we know the new government in beirut is making good faith efforts to disarm hezbollah, we also know iran is dead set on reconstituting hezbollah's capability in lebanon especially through the treatment of rockets. Perhaps most significantly, iran seems unwilling to take up president trump's direct offers of direct nuclear talks. Hamas continues to hold 50 hostages in gaza including two americans.
▶ 0:42:09Chair Risch: The challenge is how to translate these dramatic military achievements into diplomatic, economic, and political piece that will benefit the united states, our regional allies, and our partners. I know that senator rosen and my colleagues that will come today share my interest in building on the success of the abraham accords, which I know, you Mr. hook, were involved in, to strengthen the relationships between the united states and error partners.
▶ 0:42:39Chair Risch: It is clear that our partners in the region share president trump's vision about forging a future with the middle east defined by commerce, not chaos, cooperation, not conflict. To help us navigate these complex issues today, we have an incredible panel of former U.S. officials and expert practitioners. We are truly looking forward to your insights and recommendations.
▶ 0:43:05Chair Risch: I am so happy to recognize the ranking member and my friend senator rosen for her opening remarks.
▶ 0:43:09Sen. Rosen: Thank you you, jerry mccormick. For holding today's important hearings. This is the subcommittee's first since you and I were named chair and ranking member respectively. I'm really excited about the work we will be able to do together to support U.S. interests across a broad swath of the globe of the middle east and north africa to central and south asia.
▶ 0:43:32Sen. Rosen: I want to thank you as well to eyewitnesses to offer your insights today. I would like to build upon your remarks, senator mccormick. As you illustrated, the middle east is at a critical juncture. It is full of risks as well as opportunities. How we engage in the region and the coming weeks and months has the potential to alter its trajectory for decades to come.
▶ 0:44:00Sen. Rosen: In just the last few weeks, we have seen hostilities between israel and iran. We have seen increased houthis we have seen increased houthi attacks and maritime commerce in the red sea, skirmishes between israel and syria, and a lack of progress in ending the war in gaza, bringing home all of the hostages held by hamas and addressing a humanitarian crisis . But since the beginning of the year, we've also seen the decline of iran's nuclear and ballistic capabilities.
▶ 0:44:30Sen. Rosen: Assad's regime crumbling in syria. And the significant weakening of hamas. To help set the middle east on a path toward peace and prosperity, we not only have to deter our adversaries from engaging in harmful actions, we must also work to advance our interests by implementing a coherent strategy and assistance plan for the region. So I will be clear.
▶ 0:44:59Sen. Rosen: Iran can never be allowed to acquire or develop a nuclear weapon. I couldn't be more clear than that. I'm hopeful that our targeted strikes on iran's nuclear program earlier this summer will pave the way to a negotiated agreement that makes this a reality. But it is critical of the administration of merck's with congress on what comes next. We must also ensure that terror groups, especially iranian proxies, cannot operate freely and threaten stability in the middle east.
▶ 0:45:30Sen. Rosen: So to that end, I have led bipartisan efforts to freeze iranian assets, tighten and renew sanctions, and integrate air and missile defenses throughout the region. We must do more to bolster regional stability and deny extremist groups the instability frankly on which they thrive.
▶ 0:45:52Sen. Rosen: An integrated middle east of like-minded partners and allies is essential to advancing our interests which is why we must widen and deepen the abraham accords, including through economic integration and other people to people bonds that provide tangible benefits to the region. In gaza, hamas remains an impediment to peace and poses a threat to both israelis and palestinians.
▶ 0:46:17Sen. Rosen: We must continue to support israel as a works to free the hostages, defeat hamas, and protect itself against future threats. At the same time, we must also allow for more humanitarian aid for civilians in gaza and do everything possible to prevent the loss of innocent lives, and support a negotiated end to the war. In syria and iraq, we cannot see the ground where the U.S. led coalition has made progress in eliminating the isis threat.
▶ 0:46:46Sen. Rosen: To consolidate our military gains, we need to ensure that terrorists are held accountable for their horrific crimes. We must also make sure that there is a thoughtful plan for reintegration, rehabilitation of individuals from camps. If we fail to reintegrate these populations, it will be at our peril. This leads me to my last point.
▶ 0:47:13Sen. Rosen: Former defense secretary jim matus once said, if you don't fully fund the state department, that I will need to buy more ammunition. Diplomacy and foreign assistance is vital to the future of this region. When people don't have access to food or jobs, terror groups recruit them. When children don't have access to education, they are more easily radicalized.
▶ 0:47:36Sen. Rosen: And as this administration slashes our diplomatic corps, expert civil servants, and foreign assistance programs, we are undeniably less safe and less prosperous. So to set the region on the right path, we cannot be afraid to leverage our military strength, but we must certainly also leverage our diplomatic and foreign assistance tools. Thank you again for being here. Thank you, Mr. chairman. I look forward to discussing this with all of you today.
▶ 0:48:03Chair Mccormick: Thank you, senator rosen. Thank you for organizing this year and with me today. Let me introduce our witnesses. We have an all-star panel, terrific expertise and experience at the table, so thank you for coming. Mr. brian hook has served as a key diplomat and senior advisor to departments of state under president george h.w. Bush, george w. Bush, resident donald j. Trump. During the trump administration he served as director of the state departments policy planning and a U.S.
▶ 0:48:32Chair Mccormick: Special representative for iran. He was the lead architect of the maximum pressure campaign against iran. Brian is also a key official and the team that negotiated peace agreements known collectively as the abraham accords. He also held a number of senior positions in the bush administration including assistant secretary of state for international organizations, senior advisor to the U.S. ambassador to the united nations, special assistant to the president for policy. Nice to have a an old friend back before the committee.
▶ 0:49:02Chair Mccormick: Great to see you. We also have ambassador dan shapiro, distinguished diplomat, foreign policy expert with over two decades of experience in senior U.S. government positions. Ambassador shapiro served as president biden's top middle east policy official at the pentagon, deputy assess and secretary for the middle east, also served as a department of state senior advisor for regional integration in the bureau of near eastern affairs, and senior advisor to the special envoy for iran.
▶ 0:49:33Chair Mccormick: He is also notably the former U.S. ambassador to israel, having served in that role from 2011 to 2017. He's had a number of senior roles at the national security council and here on capitol hill. In addition to his incredible government service, shapiro was a distinguished fellow at the atlantic council, distinguished visiting fellow at the institute for national security studies in tel aviv. Ambassador shapiro, thank you for being here. Welcome back.
▶ 0:50:01Chair Mccormick: Last but certainly not least from the great city of pittsburgh, shelly culbertson, a neighbor in squirrel hill, senior policy recharger at rand, nonpartisan research institution. Ms. culbertson's research focuses on disaster and post-conflict recoveries, refugees, and international development. Her work has focused on the middle east including in iraq where she led a study on post-conflict stabilization in mosul after coalition operations against isis.
▶ 0:50:31Chair Mccormick: She previously served in the rand homeland research division management team as associate director of the disaster management resilience program, also director of the infrastructure immigration and security operations program. Welcome, shelley. Thank you for being here. I want to remind the witnesses to try to keep your opening remarks to five minutes. Your submitted testimony will be entered in full. We are looking forward to a great discussion. Mr. hook, you are recognized for your opening statement.
▶ 0:50:59Mr. Hook: Thank, Mr. chairman, good to be with you. Old friend. To ranking member rosen, good to be with you, as well. I very much enjoyed your opening statement, which I thought nicely captured the risks and the opportunity that we have before us. I believe that the old order in the middle east is passing away, and a new, better order is coming into view.
▶ 0:51:26Mr. Hook: We have too much proof of a better order to return to the failed strategies that perpetuated the old order. American diplomacy should support the new and dynamic middle east which is the subject of today's hearing. In broad strokes, I think this means diplomacy that stands by our allies in good times and in bad. It means deterring our adversaries.
▶ 0:51:55Mr. Hook: And that means sustaining the incredible gains made over the last two years, especially during the recent 12-day war against the iranian regime. I have never been more optimistic about the future of the middle east than I am now. In the aftermath of iran's -- october 7, iran's imperial expansionist project has come undone. The U.S.
▶ 0:52:21Mr. Hook: And israel are systematically dismantling the architecture of iran's malign influence. We are no longer managing the nuclear threat, we are resolving it. Unprecedented joint actions against iran's nuclear facilities, as well as its nuclear program -- missile program and its proxies, have changed the balance of power in the region.
▶ 0:52:47Mr. Hook: If we continue the current strategy of deterrence and diplomacy, a new and better middle east will follow. The united states can help midwife a regional dynamic of sovereign states, anchored by israel and arab gulf nations who, together, counter extremism, invest in their own citizens, and recognize the right of the jewish people to live in peace alongside their neighbors.
▶ 0:53:19Mr. Hook: President trump described this vision in his 2017 riyadh speech. He deserves great credit for realizing this vision across his first term and into the second term. He recognizes that peace is helped by maintaining escalation dominance and diplomacy is helped by focusing on common interests with our allies. We should help organize our allies around shared interests.
▶ 0:53:52Mr. Hook: For example, countering iran's threats to the U.S. and the region, advancing the peace process through the abraham accords, and deepening economic and cultural ties. But continued success in the region is not inevitable. American leadership, coupled with burden sharing by our partners, is essential for this vision to become a reality.
▶ 0:54:18Mr. Hook: We should convert the military gains, the recent military gains, into an enduring balance of power that favors america and her regional allies. The U.S. and its partners should continue resisting iran's expansionist, anti-semitic designs in the region. We must ensure iran's proxy, hamas, is uprooted from gaza.
▶ 0:54:44Mr. Hook: I very much hope that this can be conducted by israel in a way to maintain support here in the united states, and that israel will continue to ensure the safe delivery of humanitarian assistance to the gazans who are suffering under hamas control. We should ensure that hezbollah remains degraded in lebanon.
▶ 0:55:07Mr. Hook: United states should continue enforcing oil sanctions against iran, including by implement the bishop act, which I encourage congress to pass last year before this committee. Easing pressure now would allow iran's oil revenue to fund terrorism and finance the reconstitution of its nuclear program.
▶ 0:55:29Mr. Hook: I want to close by noting that the combined efforts of the united states and israel against the iranian regime have deeply weakened an engine of anti-semitism in the region. Regrettably, this evil is not confined to the middle east. We hear echoes here at home of the anti-semitism that animates iran's regime. It is on college campuses, and online echo chambers, and increasingly in mainstream discourse.
▶ 0:56:01Mr. Hook: It was seen tragically in pittsburgh in 2018 at the tree of life synagogue, blocks from the home of senator mccormick. Those who traffic in anti-semitism often present themselves as bold and provocative contrarians, but they perpetuate an ancient hatred. In every form anti-semitism takes and in every place it emerges, we must continue to confronted with moral clarity and principled opposition. Thank you.
▶ 0:56:30Chair Mccormick: Thank, Mr. hook. Ambassador.
▶ 0:56:34Mr. Shapiro: Mr. chairman, ranking member rosen, decembers members of the subcommittee, thanks for the opportunity to testify at this very timely hearing. We are, as you have both stated, Mr. hook did come at a critical moment for U.S. policy in the middle east because we have a once in a generation opportunity to help reshape the region in ways that will bring more peace and prosperity and less conflict and violence to those who live there, and significant benefit to the interests of the united states.
▶ 0:57:04Mr. Shapiro: In my opening remarks, only three points about the opportunities and risks we face. First, since hamas launched this war and the vicious terror attacks of october 7, a combination of israeli and U.S. military power has don't blow after blow to the iranian aligned axis of resistance. Hamas, hezbollah, houthis in yemen, she a groups, and iran itself. The assad regime crumbled.
▶ 0:57:33Mr. Shapiro: Iran, owing to its own miscalculations come is at its weakest point in decades. President trump was right to seek a nuclear deal with iran through diplomacy, but given how close iran was to a nuclear weapon and his proven willingness to attack israel directly, I believe a military confrontation was necessary and inevitable. Israeli and U.S. operations costs severe damage to iran's nuclear facilities. They will be unusable for a significant period of time. That is time we can perhaps extend through a range of weeks.
▶ 0:58:03Mr. Shapiro: None of this means that the threats posed by iran or its proxies are limited but the significant gain produced by military power now give us the opportunity to use all the tools at our disposal, deterrence but also diplomacy, to consolidate those gains. Second, we must now prioritize a diplomatic tool to advance regional projections -- objections. In my full statement, I described a range of initiatives in three categories.
▶ 0:58:29Mr. Shapiro: Category one is developing a comprehensive day after playing for gaza that includes the release of all hostages, protection of israel security, removal of hamas from power, relief or palestinian civilians, and rigidly supported reconstruction for palestinians that want to live in peace with israel. This includes enabling a vastly improved mechanism to provide humanitarian aid to palestinian civilians in gaza. Hamas bears much response ability for the hunger crisis in gaza by hijacking aid for its own benefit.
▶ 0:59:00Mr. Shapiro: The gaza humanitarian foundation alternative is also vastly insufficient and is flawed and dangerous in its design which is led to far too many debts. The day after plan should also include exile of remaining hamas leaders and fighters from gaza, interim security mission for gaza from arab states with U.S. support, improve the palestinian authority, new leadership in gaza linked to the pa and supported by arab states such as the uae and saudi arabia, articulation of a pathway to a future palestinian state, opposition to israeli moves toward annexation.
▶ 0:59:33Mr. Shapiro: Category two is continuing and expanding the regional integration process locked by the abraham accords, one of the great events of recent middle east history. This includes prioritizing discussions with the saudi arabians on the timing, conditions, and mechanism of normalization with israel including the bilateral U.S.-saudi agreements that can undergird. Saudi officials have said they also require a clear pathway to the establishment of a palestinian state.
▶ 0:59:59Mr. Shapiro: This work also includes reconvening and expanding the negative form as possible after the more, pointing and confirming a special envoy for the abraham accords, working toward a non-belligerency agreement between israel and syria. Category three is capitalizing on the damage to iran's nuclear program and the weakening of the iranian lid access to secure long-term improvement in the regional security environment.
▶ 1:00:21Mr. Shapiro: That means seeking renewed negotiations with iran to sustain the gains of the military strikes, prevent nuclear programs reconstitution, secure full access for iaea inspectors, locate and remove the radium stockpile, make sure there is no enrichment going forward, and achieve meaningful.
▶ 1:00:40Mr. Shapiro: It also maintains pressure on iran by coordinating with european partners on the snapback of sanctions, increasing efforts to iranian oil exports to china, and a clear additional strikes by the U.S. or israel is possible. We must also prepare for the possibility of internally driven regime change, not as U.S. policy but something the armenian people take into their own hands.
▶ 1:01:02Mr. Shapiro: We should be providing appropriate support to the air many people now and develop a plan to support a transition so we are not caught flat footed if the iranian people do take matters into their own hands. Finally, I would just like to areas that cause me concern that could cause us to miss this opportunity. First, none of our goals for expanding regional integration can really get off the ground until the gaza war ends. A 60-day cease fire would bring much-needed relief but it really must transition directly into the end of the war.
▶ 1:01:30Mr. Shapiro: That will require is really agreement to certain terms but also intense pressure on hamas by qatar and other actors. If we miss this opening to end the war, the risk is that it will slide into the only alternative, a full scale is really occupation of gaza, something the idf has consistently told us they don't want to do. That will be more debt hostages, more dead palestinian civilians, more dead israeli soldiers, no positive involvement, deepening isolation of israel.
▶ 1:01:58Mr. Shapiro: President trump can help by withdrawing his gaza riviera proposal which has emboldened some of the most extreme members of the cabinet to press for full-scale occupation. I hope you will do that. That idea is wildly rejected in the region and will discourage arab state from helping stabilize gaza. Second, the trumpet ministries is also dismantling, as senator rosen mentioned, critical to the abilities we need to advance U.S. interests in the region.
▶ 1:02:22Mr. Shapiro: Right after the war with iran, the state department impose drastic cuts to personnel including experts at nuclear diplomacy, sanctions enforcement, counterterrorism, post-conflict transitions, and israeli-palestinian relations, adjustment made to stabilize syria and lebanon, no for assistance programs that can help. When we need to counter the propaganda the iranian regime fees to its population, we decimated our international broadcasting capabilities so they don't hear from us.
▶ 1:02:53Mr. Shapiro: Meanwhile, china is deepening its influence in all of these areas everywhere the U.S. pulls back. That is a serious goal that will harm our ability to stabilize the middle east. Thank you. I look forward to your questions.
▶ 1:03:06Chair Mccormick: Ms. culbertson, I will turn to your opening statement, and then senator kaine, we will be hearing from you. We will turn to you for questions as soon as we finish with this opening statement. >> nobody lets me jump to the front of the line.
▶ 1:03:21Chair Mccormick: We haven't heard your questions yet. Please go ahead, thank you.
▶ 1:03:28Ms. Culbertson: Chairman mccormick, ranking member rosen, members of the subcommittee, thank you very much for the opportunity to testify today. I'm a senior policy researcher at rand, a nonpartisan research organization. We meet at a pivotal moment for the middle east and for the role of the middle east, united states in shaping its future. Operation midnight hammer and the military activities leading up to it have set back iran's nuclear capabilities and weakened its proxies.
▶ 1:03:59Ms. Culbertson: Hamas has less capacity and credibility. Hezbollah is diminished, opening the way for the lebanese state to reassert authority. In syria, the united states lifted sanctions on the new government to enable recovery. Iraq is preparing for elections that could further erode iranian influence. The common thread, iran's ability to present disruptive power across the region is waning. But iran is down, not out.
▶ 1:04:28Ms. Culbertson: We now face a strategic opportunity to set a new course for the middle east. This opportunity cannot be secured by military means alone. It requires a renewed approach routed in diplomacy, economic facilitation, human leadership, and strategic investment. The united states can reestablish itself as the partner of choice, as the country that helps people in the region solve problems and realize their aspiration for security, prosperity, and even normalcy.
▶ 1:05:00Ms. Culbertson: Instead of iran, russia, china, or extremist groups. It is in U.S. interest to do so. This means rethinking what constitutes U.S. interests. Civilian displacement, state collapse, and economic despair are not peripheral. They are central to long-term global stability. These are, of course, primarily the response ability of regional governments, but the united states has powerful tools to help support progress. Doing so is not charity, it is strategy.
▶ 1:05:31Ms. Culbertson: The U.S. has repeatedly sought to reduce its footprint in the middle east, only to be drawn back in again and again. Every administration since jimmy carter has launched new military operations there in response to threats from american interests. This has meant chasing symptoms instead of solving underlying problems. We now have an opportunity to break that cycle. Here are five steps the united states could take.
▶ 1:05:59Ms. Culbertson: First, mediate the ends of complex, in gaza, syria, lebanon, yemen on, libya. Conflict continue to destabilize the region, fuel humanitarian crises, and create vacuums for maligned actors. U.S. diplomacy has already shown promise including through the abraham accords. We can build on this by helping to end the war in gaza from a program saudi-is really normalization with meaningful provision for palestinians and mediating disputes in syria come as we once did successfully in northern iraq.
▶ 1:06:32Ms. Culbertson: Second, address long-term humanitarian crises. The middle east is over 24 million displaced people, many with no realistic path to return home, integrate, or resettle. Displacement on this scale is not just a humanitarian concern, it's a driver of instability. Global refugee systems are broken. New solutions, especially for the 6 million refugees, won't materialize without U.S. leadership. Third, support postwar recovery.
▶ 1:07:02Ms. Culbertson: To prevent the return of violence, conflict affected regions the invisible sustained progress, jobs, schools, hospitals, justice systems, functioning markets. Recovery will not happen fast enough without targeted support. The marshall plan succeeded not just because of money, but because it coordinated a condition to restore trade, public finances, and private investment. Fourth, help govern -- help improve governance and improve jobs.
▶ 1:07:30Ms. Culbertson: High youth unemployment and poor governance were major drivers of the arab spring, and remain sources of unrest. These are not just internal challenges, they are regional risks. U.S. support for better policing, public services, vocational training, and economic reforms can reduce the appeal of extremism, and show that we are a partner in progress. Fifth, focus on strategic priority locations.
▶ 1:07:55Ms. Culbertson: Iraq, syria, the west bank and gaza, lebanon each face serious challenges, but each but could be made of a model of recovery and partnership. A focused effort across them anchored in civilian tools can prevent return to war and reinforce U.S. leadership. None of this requires the U.S. to act alone or bear every cost, but we can lead where others cannot. We can align incentives and coordinate allies, multilateral institutions, regional partners and the private sector.
▶ 1:08:25Ms. Culbertson: Let me close with two futures. In the first, conflicts grind on, economies remain stagnant, iran, russia, and china fill the vacuum, extremist groups like hamas and isis exploit social gaps, refugees fully, and the united states is pulled in again and again.
▶ 1:08:45Ms. Culbertson: In the second, the united states steps forward with strategic leadership, we help and wards, we help the government and rebuilding commissaries recover, youth find work, the region stabilizes and draws closer to us and our allies. We can choose, at least in part, which future unfolds. We have willing partners pay while recovery is the region's responsibility, it is in our own national interest to stand with them. Thank you and I look forward to your questions.
▶ 1:09:11Chair Mccormick: Thank you, Ms. culbertson. Senator kaine.
▶ 1:09:16Sen. Kaine: Thank you for holding this hearing. It's important. I will hopscotch around a bit because there are so many different topics. At the end of the week or may be the day after tomorrow, germany, and britain will meet with iran and turkey to talk about the imposition of snapback sanctions under thejcpoa for iran's productivity. I view that as a positive that these three european nations were considering the imposition of snapback sanctions. Would you generally agree with that? >> senator, I do agree.
▶ 1:09:50Sen. Kaine: It's important that that leverage be used to try and move iran in the direction we need them to go, which is to relinquish their highly enriched uranium, any residual enrichment capability. I believe those meetings are coordinated between the europeans and secretary rubio. As they need to be. The europeans are the ones that hold the key emma and that needs to be a partnership.
▶ 1:10:12Sen. Kaine: The proof is in the pudding, but Ms. culbertson, do you generally agree, these allies trying to use the tools of the jcpoa, snapback sanctions could be effective leverage?
▶ 1:10:29Mr. Hook: I supported snapback in 2019, 20 20. We believe that iran was in sufficient breach of its nuclear operations that it justify triggering snapback sanctions. The e3 were not with us then. I'm very heartened to see them with us now.
▶ 1:10:49Sen. Kaine: Had we already pulled out of the jcpoa in 2019? So it was hard to convince them to use the jcpoa we had backed away from the table. I agree, it would have been better had they done it earlier, but at least it is a tool. We will cross our fingers and maybe the discussions will be helpful. A couple of you just mentioned but didn't give us a report on iraq. What is going on in iraq right now?
▶ 1:11:17Sen. Kaine: As iranian influence weakens in syria, hezbollah being weakened, the houthis are sort of weekend but maybe sitting back and waiting, but what is going on in iraq? Has the iranian weakening wea kend their hold in iraq, or is that something that we need to pay attention to?
▶ 1:11:38Ms. Culbertson: Iranian weakening is evident in iraq. We can see this in the muted response from the iranian back the during the recent fighting between israel and iran. It seems that the younger generations in particular want something different in their future rather than increased lighting, and they also recognize their weaker position, inability to be as effective as that could be.
▶ 1:12:08Ms. Culbertson: Therefore, they are becoming more interested in domestic affairs. Iraq's prime minister has been somewhat effective in keeping stability and starting improvements on better development of public services in the economy. There is momentum there that merits U.S. support to continue in that direction. >> during the biden administration, we negotiated with iraq a 200 year transition of operation. Our counter isis mission.
▶ 1:12:40Ms. Culbertson: With the ability to extend that further by mutual agreement. I think it is something I hope the demonstration will turn to since the iraqi she militias have largely been deterred from additional attacks against U.S. forces after some early attacks in the first months of the war. I think there's a good opportunity to find a more stable basis to maintain U.S.
▶ 1:13:08Ms. Culbertson: Presence that supports iraqi security forces, continuing the counter isis mission, provide reassurance to our kurdish partners, and also give us a quite limited presence but a presence nevertheless, that allows us to balance iranian influence.
▶ 1:13:21Sen. Kaine: With hezbollah weekend, how important is it that the united states continue to support the lebanese armed forces?
▶ 1:13:31Mr. Shapiro: It is critical. The lebanese armed forces are the state institution that has legitimacy for maintaining the means of force. The united states is now quite invested first from the end the united states is quite invested to help this new lebanese government.
▶ 1:13:55Mr. Shapiro: The president who is the former commander of the forces and the prime minister to build the prime minister to build capabilities but critically it will have to include disarmament -- complete disarmament, which is not a completed process just yet. >> Mr. hook talked about anti-semitism at home and abroad and it is very serious, from whatever direction it comes.
▶ 1:14:18Mr. Shapiro: We had a hearing yesterday with the president's nominee to be ambassador to belgium, and we did not have huge attendance at the time I was asking him questions but he was reposting material from a belgian far right leader who had been convicted and imprisoned for holocaust denial and other offenses that were sort of in the antisemitism space. When we get to a business committee markup, I will present that material when all of us are around the table.
▶ 1:14:48Mr. Shapiro: Because again whether it is from the left or the right or in this country or elsewhere in the world, we have to take it seriously. >> thank you, center -- senator. Thank you again, panel. Let me begin with a comment secretary rubio made before this committee.
▶ 1:15:06Mr. Shapiro: I asked him about iran's proxies and how the administration's approach to the nuclear negotiation would be influenced by that and he made it clear those are two separate tracks which made sense to me at that time not to conflate the negotiations of the houthis and hezbollah and the militias in iraq.
▶ 1:15:32Mr. Shapiro: But that begs the question, how important is it in your opinion to maintain pressure on iran's support of those terror proxies? How would you assess a degree of that support today in light of the recent attacks and how do you recommend we continue to bring the europeans, regional allies on board with this approach?
▶ 1:15:58Mr. Hook: I think it could be a very good strategy to have the nuclear talks limited to the nuclear talks while the united states, israel and partners address the proxies that they have been doing over the last couple of years. Essentially since october 7 where israel and the united states have done historic work damaging iran's projection of power through its proxies.
▶ 1:16:28Mr. Hook: When I think about iran's military strategy, it does not really depend on an army or an air force or even much of a navy. It's proxies and missiles. And the nuclear program would be something that moves it to a much more significant threat. But until that day comes, they have to focus on proxies and missiles.
▶ 1:16:55Mr. Hook: Both have now with the exception of the houthis -- I don't want to overstate it -- to say that they are neutralized -- but iran 's power projection is nowhere near what it was and I hope this becomes a new normal for the region.
▶ 1:17:17Mr. Hook: In that you have this strong -- I think the abraham accords, originally a lot of the work was around the uae and other gulf countries working with israel to counter a common threat of iran. That work should continue. This is I think part of the burden sharing.
▶ 1:17:43Mr. Hook: If we can increase cooperation between arabs and israelis to counter extremism and threats presented by the iranian regime, that is a good strategy for the united states to get behind. I support continuing the work to stabilize the region by addressing iran's proxy warfare in the gray zone which they have been remarkably successful at.
▶ 1:18:12Mr. Hook: Those same proxies killed 603 americans in iraq alone. So it has been at enormous cost to the united states. But I believe that we are -- then the missiles obviously, taking out the missile production, launchers and the missiles themselves takes away another power projection capability that the regime has.
▶ 1:18:36Mr. Hook: So the europeans I think are much more alive to the iranian threat through the war in ukraine and the europeans are in a much better place in some ways because iranian drones are flying in ukraine. >> thank you. We only have a minute before I turned to the next question. >> I agree very much with what he had to say. Iran remains motivated to try to rearm these proxies.
▶ 1:19:06Mr. Hook: It will be very difficult for them initially but they will look for those openings. If there is chaos in syria, they will try to find their way between the cracks and try to restore. The best tool we have is
▶ 1:19:41Mr. Hook: [indiscernible] the proxies. It requires intense focus and day-to-day management by expertise in the state department and treasury department to get operator ships, banks, etc. Because once that revenue is going down as it did during the first thank you administration -- first trump administration it has come back up, then you force the iranian regime to make forces between -- to make choices.
▶ 1:20:14Mr. Hook: If they will contain a -- continued to try to squander these foreign ventures. >> [indiscernible] >> thank you for hosting us. Thank you to each of you for being here. President trump is the most pro-peace president in our lifetime.
▶ 1:20:44Mr. Hook: It is important to have this discussion to protect american interests across the region as we stand with our friend and ally, israel. The jewish people have faced unimaginable obstacles and persecution. When all of us met with families, some are still being held hostage and it is pretty heartbreaking.
▶ 1:21:12Mr. Hook: Everyday they are being held as another reminder of why we should continue to stand with our good friend, israel. Our one true democratic ally in the middle east. With your experience, how important is it america stands with israel and counter iranian aggression? >> I think it is absolutely indispensable.
▶ 1:21:36Mr. Hook: As I was saying earlier, there's a favorable balance of power now in the middle east. And the iranian regime is facing its worst crisis in its 45 year history. As chairman mccormick was saying, the challenge now is how do we translate the military gains into the political wins?
▶ 1:22:03Mr. Hook: Enduring greater peace, a lot of that comes through saudi normalization and helping bring an end to the conflict. Kushner put out a good peace plan in the first term.
▶ 1:22:22Mr. Hook: That created I think an opening, when the pa walked away from the table, for the iraqis to come to the table -- the emiratis to come to the table. I think that should continue. And I think that it will be very good for israel and the kingdom of saudi arabia. At some point, I hope the political space exists more saudi to do that.
▶ 1:22:53Mr. Hook: We have seen certain uae countries in the abraham accords have enjoyed great benefit from it and I think more countries will follow. >> we need to stand with israel. We know it is not just iran that is a problem. We have terrorist groups in hamas, qatar and turkey claimed to be an ally to the united states, but align with terrorist groups, against our true allies. Do you think the united states should be helping these countries that enable terror?
▶ 1:23:25Mr. Hook: >> well, right now, I saw today that it looks like qatar had said to hamas they need to have a better response to the proposal on the table. And so it would be very good to have qatar continue to pressure hamas so that we can bring an end to this war.
▶ 1:23:50Mr. Hook: I work very closely with all of the golf partners -- golf partners and believe that the gulf is the heart of the new middle east. Where you see high levels of iranian interference, there is a perfect correlation of misery and terrorism and poverty. So I think the gulf is the future of the middle east. And as I said earlier, we need to work with our partners in the region and stand with them in good times and in bad.
▶ 1:24:20Mr. Hook: >> what do you think about turkiye? I look at qatar -- they have supported hamas all along. They have given money to hamas. They have the hamas leaders in their country. They live in luxury. They don't put any -- you can't see any pressure to bring these hostages home. It is disappointing.
▶ 1:24:47Mr. Hook: And in turkey, does not seem like it is much better. >> turkiye is always complicated. We had our bilateral issues with them when I served in the first term. With the fall of assad, obviously that was a world anti doping agency -- that was a win to expand its influence.
▶ 1:25:17Mr. Hook: It could come at a cost for the kurds. From everything I see, there is a lot of effort to try to work through this -- through these bilateral issues in the trump administration. >> thanks, chair.
▶ 1:25:31Chair Mccormick: Senator rosen. >> as protocol goes, we always defer to the chair or ranking member. We appreciate everyone comes to this important subcommittee, and having to take my questions before we gavel. >> thank you very much. Thank you both for holding this hearing and thank you to each of our witnesses for testifying. I think it is fair to say that there is general bipartisan agreement on this committee.
▶ 1:26:02Chair Mccormick: I think probably in congress, that a is in the best interest of the -- a stable syria is in the best interest of the united states. As you think about what we should be doing in syria, what are the resources needed to bring stability there and what security guarantees are needed and that the united states can be helpful with? I will throw it out to whoever would like to answer.
▶ 1:26:33Ms. Culbertson: Syria is also at a pivotal moment. Coming out of war with a very fragile government and society. I think there are a number of steps that we should be taking now that syria has met the criteria to lift sanctions on them. They are not perfect but it's important that syria succeed. The first is stability and mediation among various sectoral groups. The U.S. was effective in solving sectoral disputes.
▶ 1:27:07Ms. Culbertson: It is one of their keys to stability in a long-term. In syria, we have an opportunity to help it become a united country as well. The next is a recovery strategy. There's been a tremendous amount of physical infrastructure destruction and social destruction, public services. 2.4 one million children are out of school. A quarter of housing is damaged or destroyed. This will not be rebuilt on its own without financing accountability and a lot of coordination.
▶ 1:27:38Ms. Culbertson: Having a strong recovery strategy that looks broadly at infrastructure, social services and the economy, etc. Is key. The third is working on refugee return. What we have learned from studies globally is the vast majority of refugees never return. I think if we want to see something different in syria with returns, something different will need to happen, enabling conditions in syria so refugees can return and find stability and education and jobs.
▶ 1:28:10Ms. Culbertson: Finally, the isis prisons are a remaining sore spot in the northeast. Some 9000 fighters are in prison. Likely incarcerated for a long time if not in perpetuity. But 40,000 family members -- women and children, many of the women are criminals also but the children are not getting adequate education, and growing up in that environment is a long-term risk to them as well as to future radicalization issues.
▶ 1:28:41Ms. Culbertson: Those are the four steps that I recommend. >> I am surprised you did not mention the lifting of sanctions. Did I miss that? >> the sanctions lifting that happened last week -- a month ago or so, as well as other steps to do so. >> I think there has been rhetoric about lifting the sanctions with the actual implementation of that ongoing. How do -- how important do you think that is?
▶ 1:29:08Ms. Culbertson: It is crucial. Syria will not recover without funds. They need to rebuild buildings. That costs money. That money has to go through banks. In order to give syria a chance and not devolving into chaos again, there needs to be funding flowing into it but done in ways that manage accountability so that is being spent as intended. >> and how challenging is the continued bombing from israel into syria?
▶ 1:29:37Ms. Culbertson: In terms of creating -- preventing the ability of the country to come together?
▶ 1:29:44Ms. Culbertson: I think all of the violence, the sectoral violence with neighboring countries is putting syria and a very delicate spot. It could devolve back into civil war and stay that way for a long time or it could weather it and go forward. I think a lot of that depends on U.S. leadership and making sure the conditions are in place. Including internal stability of relations with neighbors, recovery and helping refugees return. >> thank you.
▶ 1:30:13Ms. Culbertson: Last week, the minority on this committee released its report on china. The price of retreat. And it addresses policies that have been put in place since the trump administration came into office at the beginning of the year. It talks about ceding ground to china. In the middle east, we know that while we is developing 5g networks -- huawei is developing 5g networks.
▶ 1:30:44Ms. Culbertson: It serves as an intermediary for dual use products. Used by houthis for drones. What does china want in the middle east? Again, ambassador shapiro?
▶ 1:30:58Ms. Siu: Thank you, senator --
▶ 1:31:02Mr. Shapiro: China wants to increase its military footprint and relationships. It is one of the reasons -- ensuring that we remain the security partner of choice for our partners in the region is critical.
▶ 1:31:20Mr. Shapiro: When we have been negotiating over the last couple of administrations the possibility of normalization between saudi arabia and israel, the saudis have come to us and said we would like a security guarantee from the united states which is reasonable to grand but it must be coupled with clear limitations on saturday -- saudi -chinese military cooperation. Setting a frame for others in the both. -- in the gulf.
▶ 1:31:51Mr. Shapiro: That should be critical. We have a small presence in iraq and syria. Those partners like the kurds continued to counter -- the counter isis mission. If we remove ourselves from all those areas, it would raise a lot of questions in the minds of various partners. And the chinese will be looking for opportunities to show not initially militarily but economically or culturally that they are an alternative to us. That is very dangerous for our interests. >> thank you.
▶ 1:32:20Mr. Shapiro: I recommend the report to each of you. Thank you.
▶ 1:32:26Chair Mccormick: Senator rosen and senator daines. >> thank you. I want to think about the future. We know what we need to do. But I believe we have a big future with the abraham accords. As one of the founders and cochairs of the bipartisan senate abraham accords caucus, I firmly believe the abraham accords is a vehicle for regional integration and transformation.
▶ 1:32:52Chair Mccormick: Abraham accords countries, we have talked about saudi arabia made clear future expansion of the accords hinges in part in a durable day after plan. It is for gaza and ends in a two state solution. Ambassador shapiro, expand on your testimony to discuss the value of increasingly number of abraham accords countries weather in the region or outside the region.
▶ 1:33:18Chair Mccormick: But countries you think we can bring next into the fold and the impact of the day after in gaza and the west bank by increasing regional integration and enhancing israeli security. >> thank you, senator. The abraham accords were one of the great achievements of the first trumpet ministration and modern middle east history. They stalled during the war.
▶ 1:33:42Chair Mccormick: Negotiations continued all through the war with the saudis on a normalization agreement and I believe they continued to this day -- continue to this day in the second administration. I don't think the saudi's are likely to come to that agreement until the war in gaza is over and they have said, the crown prince and others have repeatedly said they would like to know there's a pathway to a future palestinian state. That could be defined lots of ways. But that should be part of this.
▶ 1:34:09Chair Mccormick: I do think their indications is as long as their public and other public sourcing the scenes of combat and hunger and deprivation out of gaza, even though they put as much of the blame on hamas as anybody does, it does not create the political context for them to move forward. We should not just focus on the saudis. The negative forum has gotten lost. >> the negative forum is amazing.
▶ 1:34:37Chair Mccormick: >> I is to be the chair of the steering committee of the negative forum, morocco, bahrain, egypt, as soon as possible coming out of the war, we need to re-gather -- reconvened the group and show that this is a multilateral organization that can drive the benefits of regional integration and normalization to their citizens with the working groups on water, health, tourism and the like. But it needs to be expanded.
▶ 1:35:05Chair Mccormick: Jordan, we were right on the verge of bringing them in before october 7. There should be a role for the palestinians. The palestinian authority should be present. Mauritania, indonesia, other smaller members in africa have expressed interest previously in joining the forum to build out a sense of U.S.
▶ 1:35:23Chair Mccormick: Partners, israeli and arabic working together on those problems and in the context of a day after plan, those countries coming to gaza to fund reconstruction, others coming as the U.S. partnered security force to provide the security in the area. That's a real opportunity. >> I have been to the abraham accords countries multiple times and multiple trips to the region.
▶ 1:35:53Chair Mccormick: Everyone discusses the possibilities and all the things that we could do, based on the negative forum, and so many of those areas. Water, energy, transportation, cybersecurity, education, even tourism. I really look forward to that. I have just a minute left. Ambassador shapiro, I will ask about the israel memo of understanding.
▶ 1:36:23Chair Mccormick: You mentioned the mou underscores our long-term security commitment to israel, military cooperation and provides israel with the platforms and systems it needs to maintain its qualitative military edge, the mou expires in 2028, can you talk about how the mou and re-upping it or modifying it will advance our mutual security interests? >> sure.
▶ 1:36:54Chair Mccormick: It obviously remains a U.S. interest israel will be able to defend itself. We have seen the kinds of threats they face from multiple fronts. As and I like brings major capability to deter and defeat, and adversaries, this serves american interests as well. It's important to start the process now.
▶ 1:37:14Chair Mccormick: If an agreement can be reached a here from now, two years before the expiration of the current mou, that means you don't have a gap in the acquisition is necessary but there needs to be a full analysis done as part of the threats of the next two decades because that is when this mou -- what it produces will actually bear its fruit. Wwhen we negotiated in 2016, we anticipated that drum threat that has emerged.
▶ 1:37:44Chair Mccormick: A big part of this needs to be refurbishing and upgrading israel's already excellent air and missile defense, david sling and iron dome and no iron beam but we see the proliferation of those threats so that will have to be rethought.
▶ 1:38:03Chair Mccormick: There are opportunities to think about how israel is now a partner to a number of these other arab states that it has normalize relations with and we hope there will be more of that under the umbrella of the computing ability to to maximize and get more bang for its buck as the leading partner together with others that they train with and share radar and other data with, that is something that can be embedded within the mou discussions.
▶ 1:38:33Chair Mccormick: >> thank you. >> senator daines. >> if you weeks ago, I made -- a few weeks ago, I made a swing through the caucus. Had the privilege to meet with the president. We had a productive conversation. What they had done to support israel in terms of energy resources. I had a chance to meet with the israeli ambassador to azerbaijan.
▶ 1:39:05Chair Mccormick: It was a unique opportunity to explore the long standing diplomatic ties between azerbaijan and israel. A relationship that only looks to grow stronger with the announcement of the oil deal which is going to help diversify israeli energy opportunities. Do you believe azerbaijan's relationship with israel which is in him to told story might stand as an opportunity for other islamic nations to expand diplomatic ties and work to normalize relations?
▶ 1:39:40Chair Mccormick: >> I do. I think this relationship as you said is sort of underappreciated. Sometimes people would say, how can we expand the abraham accords? Maybe azerbaijan. They had diplomatic relations with israel for many years. One of the leading muslim countries that has done that long before the abraham accords came on the scene. Because of their proximity to the region and the threats israel faces from iran, have been a security partner because of their energy resources.
▶ 1:40:07Chair Mccormick: They are an energy partner because of their muslim population. They have -- >> I might add it is the only country in the world that borders russia and iran. Very strategic. >> their strategic importance is impossible to deny but they also have that sort of cultural convening capability and able to build bridges to strengthen israel's relations with other arab and muslim countries including some in south asia -- central asia, who have relations
▶ 1:40:37Chair Mccormick: Already but not as rich and deep as azerbaijan's. We have thought about ways of broadening those regional convenings to have the sense of any -- a european union or asean gathering of countries in the middle east. Azerbaijan should take part. >> he described central asia as the wine bottle and azerbaijan is the quick.
▶ 1:41:00Chair Mccormick: A very important part of the east-west corridor they want to see happen in central asia and this direction when you think about, they are surrounded by the neighbors in the north and to the east. You laid out several things that have changed over the last seven to 10 years regarding iran's nuclear production of weapons delivery capabilities. I would argue iran's intent is and has always been to create a nuclear weapon.
▶ 1:41:28Chair Mccormick: If they were trying to create peaceful nuclear operations, where they doing it way underground when they took -- when it took b2's to destroy that on the surface? We had a big fight up here on capitol hill, what is iran's intent? We have been vindicated. It was to build a nuclear warhead. Looking at the current capabilities, behavior and rhetoric, do you believe the U.S. should be concerned about their space program?
▶ 1:41:58Chair Mccormick: In the last 24 hours there have been reports about the iranians watching a rocket here for their satellite program. They are saying it is for peaceful purposes. As somebody from a state of icbms, do you think their space program as a means for perfecting and intercontinental weapons system? >> senator.
▶ 1:42:23Chair Mccormick: I am not an expert on the technology but there is not a huge difference between a space launch vehicle and and icbm. If you master one technology, it is applicable to the other. What we clearly know about iran -- we knew this in 2015 on the jcp was assigned an 2018 when the U.S. withdrew from the jcpa. Iran has unbridled hostility. They express it openly. As their ideology.
▶ 1:42:51Chair Mccormick: It's the organizing principle of the regime. Have called for its destruction, toward the united states. They have pursued a nuclear weapons program. But also ballistic missile program. -- a ballistic missile program. We saw the danger of that program in the destruction united states -- destruction in israel. They were on a path to produce 3000 a year.
▶ 1:43:23Chair Mccormick: It could not be sustained. Same risk with an icbm. >> I want to give you a chance to weigh in on this as well. >> the iranian regime has been using its space program is a cover for its icbm program for 10, 15 years or longer.
▶ 1:43:43Chair Mccormick: When I was working on the un security council, passing resolutions condemning iran's use of its base program for these purposes, to develop an icbm capability so they can threaten the united states. >> thank you. I am out of time.
▶ 1:43:59Chair Mccormick: Thank you, senator. >> senator van hollen, you made it. You are the last set of questions for this expert panel. >> thank you. Thank you to all of you for your testimony today. Ambassador shapiro, good to see you.
▶ 1:44:20Chair Mccormick: As you have indicated in your testimony, it is very important at some point to convert military gains into sustainable political strategic gains. That is also true with respect to the changes in syria. I want to get to that in a moment. First I want to focus on gaza. President trump came to office saying on day one that he was going to end the war and get the hostages released and here we are many months later and we are not there yet.
▶ 1:44:50Chair Mccormick: And in fact, more civilians are starving to death in gaza today than any point previously during this war. You testified with respect to this entity that has been established. The so-called gaza humanitarian foundation. Clearly not working. Clearly broken. Just looking at the headline, they slam U.S.
▶ 1:45:16Chair Mccormick: Gaza aid operation. It is killing people. There's an incident the other day. They were trying to deliver food into gaza. People got killed. Just in today's newspaper, they say that the centers have become death traps.
▶ 1:45:47Chair Mccormick: Usually they are killed by his release orders -- by israeli soldiers. I saw your testimony. I agree with your point that we need to replace this with a system where we flood the zone. With food. Can you elaborate on your idea?
▶ 1:46:10Chair Mccormick: >> thank you, senator rubio the problem the gaza humanitarian foundation is trying to solve is a problem. The way that the foundation 's design, it is in very limited locations. It requires palestinian civilians to transfer long distances over land.
▶ 1:46:41Chair Mccormick: It has caused numerous incidents where people have been killed sometimes by hamas and sometimes by israel's own admission by israeli fire as well. No flood the zone strategy could include more distribution plans for the gaza humanitarian foundation. The problem is the distances people have to travel.
▶ 1:47:04Chair Mccormick: If they were across the full territory of the gaza strip, and it was accompanied by an additional zone flooding by other resources, what it does is it reduces by market value the monetary value of that aid and hamas' ability to use it for political control as well as making more aid available to people. It will completely solve the problem because hamas will always take its cut. That is a legitimate problem the israelis have highlighted.
▶ 1:47:37Chair Mccormick: The way this is structured, it is too dangerous and that working the way to solve the problem the way it needs to be solved -- not working the way to solve the problem that it needs to be solved. >> there is no clear information that somehow this food is not also getting to hamas.
▶ 1:47:58Chair Mccormick: And I would refer you and others to the statement of our former ambassador and cindy mccain who said in the old system, there was no systematic diversion to hamas, they found no evidence of it despite asking the israel government for proof many times over. Quickly turning to syria, I was glad to see the trump administration lift the embargo, the blanket sanctions.
▶ 1:48:27Chair Mccormick: I did argue we should put in place immediately snap back provisions tied to making sure that they hit standards. Including protecting minority populations. We have seen these awful killings in the south and other parts of the country, of jews, christians and others.
▶ 1:48:47Chair Mccormick: Do you think the trump administration should do a better job of being clear as to what activities will cause the sanctions to go back into place? >> I do. I think the gamble -- it is a gamble to lift sanctions as quickly and forcibly as president trump announced in saudi arabia.
▶ 1:49:14Chair Mccormick: But I think it is the right gamble to give this transitional government a chance to find his footing. It has to be held accountable and all the ways you describe. How it treats minority population, corruption and things of the like. And when we see what happened recently, with massacres of the jewish population and earlier there were some in the alley wide areas, that needs to be properly flagged.
▶ 1:49:43Chair Mccormick: If it continues, there has to be some offramp or trajectory that will not lead to the full lifting of sanctions. Congress will have its say. You might be able to build and some snap back provisions on those congressionally instituted sanctions that you will have to legislate to remove. You may have an opportunity there. It also -- when we see that kind of brutality against one civilian population -- one minority population, it raises doubts about all of them.
▶ 1:50:13Chair Mccormick: Particularly the kurds, who manage counter isis efforts in northeast syria. To help sustain them. Their willingness to take that next step toward peaceful reintegration will clearly be up for grabs and not be able to happen, if the syrian central government is not living up to those commitments.
▶ 1:50:40Chair Mccormick: It should be very clear what the expectations are and there should be conditionality for the full implementation of the lifting of sanctions. >> I appreciate you bringing up the syrian kurds, who have been our allies in the fight against isis, and we need to keep our commitments to them. Thank you. >> thank you to our guests. I'm going to step away and give the gavel here to the ranking member. Thank you for your participation. He has a couple more questions. We are grateful you are here. A very good discussion.
▶ 1:51:12Chair Mccormick: Thanks to the committee for making it happen, too. >> we have had such great participation today. We were slated for an hour. I just have two more things I want to ask. I figure we will stay and close out the hearing. If you will indulge me, this is a statement for the record beer but agree with the panel -- this is a statement for the panel. I agree with the panel.
▶ 1:51:38Chair Mccormick: We need more diplomatic engagements to build upon the military success that we have had. To ensure iran never develops or acquires a nuclear weapon. And of course as senator daines talked about, we have to watch what they are doing in space. Weis an integral war fighting demand -- weis an integral war fighting domain. I want to ask two things.
▶ 1:52:05Chair Mccormick: One is about the iraq reintegration program and the other is about gaza reconstruction. I recently returned from a trip to iraq. In baghdad. I was struck by the complex integration challenges that is facing the state. A large number of internally displaced persons residing in the kurdish parts of the country. Also tens of thousands of repatriated individuals from the syrian camps.
▶ 1:52:38Chair Mccormick: You are an expert in migration and refugees, Ms. culbertson. Can you talk about the importance of thoughtful reintegration and how we can use that so extremist groups do not take advantage of these populations if they are not provided lifesaving care?
▶ 1:52:56Ms. Culbertson: Yes. Iraq still has about one million internally displaced people along with hosting a lot of syrian refugees. What we have found in a number of studies is that it is very difficult for host countries in the middle east to absorb the refugee populations they have and some of that is based on policies.
▶ 1:53:26Ms. Culbertson: A couple of policies are not allowing refugees to fully participate in labor markets. There's not enough aid to go around. They are not able to work and have jobs. That puts these people in a bind and it leads to a lot of poverty. Curtis and is one of the few places that allows it to work but the economy is pretty constrained and they have not been able to do so as much.
▶ 1:53:54Ms. Culbertson: For refugees to integrate into the kurdistan region, the issue is largely economic rather than policy. To help syrian refugees return, when we have looked at global refugee situations, the vast majority don't return. On average, 10 years after the end of a conflict, only 30% of refugees have returned.
▶ 1:54:23Ms. Culbertson: A a lot of this is because -- a lot of this is because the conditions are not sufficient to voluntarily want to go back. Those are some of the conditions we've talked about here, which are stability and not being afraid of violence upon return. In syria, a quarter of housing was destroyed. Among abandoned housing, squatters moved in. If refugees want to return, there is place for them to live. Schools are not sufficient to absorb large numbers of people.
▶ 1:54:53Ms. Culbertson: The labor market can either. The u.n. Is anticipating a mil in order returnees over the next -- a million or two returnees over the next few years. This is difficult to attain without activities to make syria stable and a place where refugees can go and stay to have a stable and safe life. >> thank you. I'm going to ask everyone quickly for the last question.
▶ 1:55:21Ms. Culbertson: We all know that we need to see the release of the hostages and have humanitarian aid come in and help the people of gaza and we all hope for the day after. Briefly tell me what the most important thing is that we can do to begin that process. What you might recommend. And I will finish out the hearing with that.
▶ 1:55:45Ms. Culbertson: I think that is the most pressing topic on the minds of so many right now.
▶ 1:55:52Ms. Culbertson: There are a lot of needs for the gaza day after. The one that comes up is security. A huge issue is the level of destruction and where gazans can live. Assuming the large majority stay in gaza, which is a fairly well agreed upon thing, 70% of housing is damaged or destroyed.
▶ 1:56:22Ms. Culbertson: We did a study on how can gazans stay in gaza and where can they live? The damage is not universal. There are neighborhoods that can be rehabilitated. Investing in those, in a method we are calling incremental urbanism. Second is developing a new type of camp. Once camps are set up, they tend to last in perpetuity.
▶ 1:56:50Ms. Culbertson: In the initial ways the structure was set up. So develop better camps. It will be years before gaza can be fully reconstructed. Make the homes better. Third is allowing development of new neighborhoods. There's open land in gaza.
▶ 1:57:16Ms. Culbertson: Once the security questions are settled, come up with a gaza -wide plan for how people can live. There are evidence-based ways of providing for those. >> thank you. >> on the security issue, once there is a cease-fire, once we have the declared end of the war, there will be a gap before you can have a fully empowered palestinian authority affiliated security force.
▶ 1:57:42Ms. Culbertson: That should be filled by an arab force or other countries besides just uae, egypt, morocco, indonesia has shown interest in participating. There's a plan for what a mission for gaza could look like. Troops from those countries, supported by the united states, to provide unique capabilities and support functions. And let that be the bridge until you get U.S.
▶ 1:58:08Ms. Culbertson: Trained security cooperation, palestinian security forces ready to come in and play that role. They said we are not going to come in to fight hamas. Hamas needs to be removed. Israel has done a great deal of damage to it militarily. But the remnants will have to be set up. One end game negotiation needs to be the exile of the remaining commanders and a critical mass of some of the fighters.
▶ 1:58:39Ms. Culbertson: We have a model for this. 1982, 14,000 were evacuated from beirut. It was a U.S. led diplomatic initiative. It's not going to be those numbers. It will be less than that. This can be done but it will need to be done to get the participation of those arab countries to play that interim security role. >> Mr. hook, last comments? >> the only thing more complicated than the day after is how we got to the day after. -- get to the day after.
▶ 1:59:12Ms. Culbertson: We still have a tough period ahead. If hamas were to lay down its arms, there would be peace. But they do not want to. They want to continue. There are many examples in the history of warfare where a combatant as part of the war strategy uses its own people as human sacrifice. And this war has been a calamity for the civilians in gaza and the suffering is in men's. -- is immense.
▶ 1:59:44Ms. Culbertson: If hamas put down its weapons, we would be in a different place. But they have the hostages as their leverage. And they use the hostages -- the israeli hostages no differently than they use their own people. I hope that all of this diplomatic effort with many parties is going to lead to a cease-fire which can then lead to something more enduring. I like a number of the ideas that have been proposed here.
▶ 2:00:14Ms. Culbertson: It will be a lot of work to even get to that point and the day after is in some ways itself complicated. >> I want to thank you all for being here. I do like that helping run the world, whether it's defense, diplomacy or development it is not charity, it is strategy. The three of you have shown in your strategic thinking research analysis and careers how important that all is.
▶ 2:00:42Ms. Culbertson: So, closing business, the hearing record will remain open until the close of business tomorrow, july 24. We asked the witness to respond to any questions submitted for the record as quickly as possible, with your response, and it will be included in the record. And thank you again for joining us. This committee is now adjourned. ♪ [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. Visit ncicap.org]